So we've lived to see one year of X.IDIFF. Now get a load of this :
Previous settlement : 3`370`182 on Thu, 13 Dec 2012 12:40:34 GMT.
Current settlement : 908`350`862 on Wed, 18 Dec 2013 19:05:48 GMT.
That's right, folks : the underlying of this future went up like a helium baloon : Dec 2012 3`370`182 (starting), Mar 2013 4`847`647 (+43.83%), Jun 2013 19`339`258 (+298.94%), Sep 2013 112`628`548 (+482.38%) and finally today 908`350`862 (+706.50%). Does this look to you like it's slowing down anyi? I only ask 'cause that $10k by November bet is still open, that's all.
Due to this settlement, collateral for one contract on the close date (so X.IDIFF.MAR, settling Mar 18 2014) would require 26.342174998 BTC. Each contract. On the other extreme, the one year out contract, X.IDIFF.DEC (settling Dec 17 2014), would require 642.459306026 BTC in collateral. Also each contract.
This is untenable an arrangement, in my opinion, and so the contracts will be slashed back by a wan. From now on each contract represents 1/10`000 fractions of the difficulty.
The book was cleared and trade in X.IDIFF is suspended for today, to give everyone a chance to adjust their pricing mechanisms. Tomorrow trade reopens, everyone's holdings of old X.IDIFF will be multiplied by 10`000, and the settlement will proceed on this new basis for the future.
Hopefully I don't end up having to do this every nine months or something.———
- To help you decide this point,
ozbot 908350862.43702 | Next Diff in 505 blocks | Estimated Change: 27.5628% in 2d 12h 43m 25s