Memoranda and shit, like 1800s high diplomacy!

From the Eulora log :

mircea_popescu soo, the results of my 1kⁱ toolⁱⁱ runⁱⁱⁱ :
mircea_popescu inputs : bundle at q^iv 146, bv100^v 9352, bp q 14.
mircea_popescu !~calc 58 * 1.46 * 1.6 + 470 * 1.46 * 1.88 + 8824 * 1.46 * 2.09 + 9352 * .14^vi
jhvh1 mircea_popescu: 58 * 1.46 * 1.6 + 470 * 1.46 * 1.88 + 8824 * 1.46 * 2.09 + 9352 * .14 = 29660.377599999993
mircea_popescu that's a mpqa^vii price of 29660 per click, of which 1309.28 for the bp, and a qabv of 13784.82^viii per click.
mircea_popescu out came tools d^ix 5264, which means every click carried 8520.82 overcraft^x (no decay, table craft^xi).
mircea_popescu notwithstanding i did 1k clicks, i got no pops :(^xii
shinohai :/

mircea_popescu i obtained in total 1191 tools (so that's +19.1% over base^xiii), for a bv of 6269424 ; plus 3060 tink sentiments, q 57, qabv 1744200 and 407382 feelings(es) q 57, qabv 2322077.4.
mircea_popescu so overall that's 2322077.4+1744200+ 6269424 = 10335701.4 bv returns from the craft, and as per above 13784820 costs, resulting in a net loss of 3449118.6 ECu or 25%.^xiv
mircea_popescu in market terms, the cost was however 29660000^xv ; the income : if i count the tools at 250% (because they're really very low d^xvi) that's 15673560 ; if i count the sentiments also at 250%^xvii that's another 4360500 ; and if i count the feelings at 1.5^xviii that's yet another 3483116.1
mircea_popescu so in total 15673560+4360500+3483116.1 = 23517176.1 meaning a 6142823.9 ECu loss in priced-to-market terms, or 20.7%.
* mircea_popescu fiddles with the variables a little
mircea_popescu !~calc 6269424 * 2.7 + 1744200 * 3 + 407382 * 1.5
jhvh1 mircea_popescu: 6269424 * 2.7 + 1744200 * 3 + 407382 * 1.5 = 2.27711178E7
mircea_popescu meh!
mircea_popescu !~calc 6269424 * 2.85 + 1744200 * 3.5 + 407382 * 1.5
jhvh1 mircea_popescu: 6269424 * 2.85 + 1744200 * 3.5 + 407382 * 1.5 = 2.4583631400000002E7
mircea_popescu !~calc 6269424 * 2.85 + 1744200 * 5 + 407382 * 2
jhvh1 mircea_popescu: 6269424 * 2.85 + 1744200 * 5 + 407382 * 2 = 2.7403622400000002E7
mircea_popescu crazy shit.
mircea_popescu !~calc 6269424 * 2.9 + 1744200 * 5 + 407382 * 2
jhvh1 mircea_popescu: 6269424 * 2.9 + 1744200 * 5 + 407382 * 2 = 2.7717093599999998E7
mircea_popescu !~calc 6269424 * 2.9 + 1744200 * 6 + 407382 * 2
jhvh1 mircea_popescu: 6269424 * 2.9 + 1744200 * 6 + 407382 * 2 = 2.9461293599999998E7
mircea_popescu so diana_coman : i think going forward the ~base~ premium of 1k bv numina will hafta be 600% ; and of 10bv numina 200.
mircea_popescu i think this craft is a good datapoint because a) many clicks b) high oc and c) came so close to breakeven in qabv terms ; more typical is a 60% loss than a 25% loss.
mircea_popescu lemme know what you think.
* mircea_popescu is totally loving this, like 1800s high diplomacy, memoranda and shit being passed back an' forth between the capitals of the great powers.

Is it evident how much fun I'm having ? Can you tell ?

Mwahahahaha.

PS. My memoranda got rejected! I think THIS MEANS WAR!

1. I can't recall who sold me this block, I thought it was Grenadine but she says she didn't. Maybe I got it noob clicking, I dunno. [↩]
2. They were Stone Adzes. [↩]
3. For the curious, the last time I did one of these was April. [↩]
4. That q stands for quality ; the game value of items scales linearly with their quality. [↩]
5. Base value at q 100. [↩]
6. This calculates a quality-adjusted total price, on the basis of the quality-100 base price of the three ingredients and their qualities. The last branch is the value of the blueprints used. [↩]
7. Market-price-quality-adjusted, which is to say taking into consideration the various premiums. As per my shop for instance Shaped Slag (of which Sharp Clump of Slag here employed is a type) carries 209% premium, so if a q 100 piece is worth 8824 (as it is) then on the market it'd go for 18442.16 ; and if it were q 146 (as it is here) then its quality-adjusted base value would be 12883.04 and its market value 26925.5536. [↩]
8. This is important being the total input value from the server's pov. [↩]
9. Durability. These kinds of tools decay about 180 durability points per use. [↩]
10. Overcraft is the difference between the input value (13784.82 here) and the fixed output value (because all crafts will produce at least 1 of a certain item at a certain quality, here 1 Stone Adze d 5264. This difference between input and output, here worth 8520.82 ECu, is what powers pops and generally extra loot. [↩]
11. Some craft lines also decay tools, such as Bandar Toolkits, or worn gear, such as a Demeaning Harness. [↩]
12. The idea being that such a long craft with such a high overcraft factor stands a good chance to get lucky. It's just a theory. [↩]
13. Because sometimes that extra loot will include a tool. [↩]
14. This is in base value terms, not taking into consideration the marketplace premiums. Basically what it says is that the server spit out 75 cents to the ECu, ie, it looted me. In Eulora this happens - when you go to loot a corpse you never know whether you'll be making out like a bandit or on the contrary, the corpse will. [↩]
15. That comes to an average premium for the items involved of 2.151642169. Notwithstanding that the four components carry premiums of 160%, 188%, 209% and 1000% (the blueprint), their relative qabv proportion in the total decides how those premiums average out (if you add one ECu's worth of something which costs you 1000% to 10 ECu's worth of something that costs you 200%, the resulting bundle will have cost you 272.72%). [↩]
16. Normally tools of the type sell for 290% as per Diana. [↩]
17. That's also as per Diana, she being the most important buyer of tier 2 sentiments as well as a major tool exporter she gets to fix a bunch of prices. [↩]
18. Just a guess. I think lots of tier 1 numina sold for lots less historically. [↩]