X.IDIFF.MAR has settled.

Wednesday, 19 March, Year 6 d.Tr. | Author: Mircea Popescu

Today being the third Wednesday of March, X.IDIFF.MAR has just settled.

Bitcoin difficulty at time of settlement was 4`250`217`919, a 467.90% increase over the previous. The settlement value should thus have been 0.00425021 BTC per contracti.

Unfortunately, this exceeds the 290% per quarter limit built into the coverage mechanism. As a result, X.IDIFF.MAR were only covered up to 0.00263421 BTCii. Seeing how the contract mostly traded above its coverage valueiii I see myself forced to conclude the contract is not well understood by market participants, which is a problem that will have to be addressed.

That aside, the rate of difficulty increase slowed down for the first quarter in history : Dec 2012 3`370`182 (starting), Mar 2013 4`847`647 (+43.83%), Jun 2013 19`339`258 (+298.94%), Sep 2013 112`628`548 (+482.38%), December 2013 908`350`862 (+706.50%) and finally today 4`250`217`919 (+467.90%). Hopefully next quarter sees an increase under 300% and the usefulness of these contracts can finally be exploited by the market.

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  1. Due to the enormous increase of difficulty the contract trades in 1/10`000 lots since December 2013 . []
  2. Previous settlement (908`350`862) × 2.9 / 10`000 = 263421. []
  3. Very low volume too :

    mircea_popescu $vwap X.IDIFF.MAR
    mpexbot mircea_popescu: X.IDIFF.MAR 1 day: no data 7 day: no data 30 day: average: 0.00294764 high: 0.003 low: 0.00290837 volume: 350 btc: 1.031674

    []

Category: MPEx
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4 Responses

  1. Bitcoin insider trading?

    What has the world come to!

    just kidding. If you can make money off this social construct, all props to you. I'm not too well-schooled in finance but, in the words of Martin, "[Money] resides only where men believe it resides."

    The adoption of fiat currency (and all currencies before and since) gives proof to that.

  2. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    2
    Mircea Popescu 
    Thursday, 20 March 2014

    http://btcbase.org/log/?date=20-03-2014#569863

  3. Thanks for the analysis :)

    Modern life is a distraction. But I understand why someone involved in it, and who sees personal gain from sticking with it, would support it.

    I do really wonder how you interpret a penchant towards traditional life and the fighting that has been man's due since time immemorial as a turn towards femininity.

  4. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    4
    Mircea Popescu 
    Thursday, 20 March 2014

    Well it's more complex than that, obviously.

    Anyway, you can ask the people there directly, there's a link in the bar to the right leading you right there.

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