X.IDIFF.MAR has settled.

Wednesday, 19 March, Year 6 d.Tr. | Author: Mircea Popescu

Today being the third Wednesday of March, X.IDIFF.MAR has just settled.

Bitcoin difficulty at time of settlement was 4`250`217`919, a 467.90% increase over the previous. The settlement value should thus have been 0.00425021 BTC per contracti.

Unfortunately, this exceeds the 290% per quarter limit built into the coverage mechanism. As a result, X.IDIFF.MAR were only covered up to 0.00263421 BTCii. Seeing how the contract mostly traded above its coverage valueiii I see myself forced to conclude the contract is not well understood by market participants, which is a problem that will have to be addressed.

That aside, the rate of difficulty increase slowed down for the first quarter in history : Dec 2012 3`370`182 (starting), Mar 2013 4`847`647 (+43.83%), Jun 2013 19`339`258 (+298.94%), Sep 2013 112`628`548 (+482.38%), December 2013 908`350`862 (+706.50%) and finally today 4`250`217`919 (+467.90%). Hopefully next quarter sees an increase under 300% and the usefulness of these contracts can finally be exploited by the market.

  1. Due to the enormous increase of difficulty the contract trades in 1/10`000 lots since December 2013 . []
  2. Previous settlement (908`350`862) × 2.9 / 10`000 = 263421. []
  3. Very low volume too :

    mircea_popescu $vwap X.IDIFF.MAR
    mpexbot mircea_popescu: X.IDIFF.MAR 1 day: no data 7 day: no data 30 day: average: 0.00294764 high: 0.003 low: 0.00290837 volume: 350 btc: 1.031674


Category: MPEx
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5 Responses

  1. Radan Rusanov`s avatar
    Radan Rusanov 
    Thursday, 20 March 2014

    Bitcoin insider trading?

    What has the world come to!

    just kidding. If you can make money off this social construct, all props to you. I'm not too well-schooled in finance but, in the words of Martin, "[Money] resides only where men believe it resides."

    The adoption of fiat currency (and all currencies before and since) gives proof to that.

  2. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    Mircea Popescu 
    Thursday, 20 March 2014


  3. Thanks for the analysis :)

    Modern life is a distraction. But I understand why someone involved in it, and who sees personal gain from sticking with it, would support it.

    I do really wonder how you interpret a penchant towards traditional life and the fighting that has been man's due since time immemorial as a turn towards femininity.

  4. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    Mircea Popescu 
    Thursday, 20 March 2014

    Well it's more complex than that, obviously.

    Anyway, you can ask the people there directly, there's a link in the bar to the right leading you right there.

  1. [...] difficulty period, principally because it is my hope and expectation that the slow down observed last settlement may indeed continue, and that we shall not in the future run against the 290% cap again. This [...]

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