Forum logs for 11 Jan 2014

Sunday, 24 November, Year 11 d.Tr. | Author: Mircea Popescu
assbot [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 65 @ 0.003 = 0.195 BTC [+] [00:00]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [HIF] 440 @ 0.000485 = 0.2134 BTC [+] [00:03]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 1995 @ 0.001 = 1.995 BTC [+] [00:04]
* djcoin_ (~d@ppp121-44-4-145.lns20.syd6.internode.on.net) has joined #bitcoin-assets [00:08]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 34000 @ 0.00084459 = 28.7161 BTC [-] {2} [00:08]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 22949 @ 0.00084941 = 19.4931 BTC [+] {2} [00:17]
bob___ benkay: I like this line "Inflation could also occur if the Bitcoin network develops fractional reserve banking" [00:17]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 47027 @ 0.00085184 = 40.0595 BTC [+] {4} [00:18]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 24740 @ 0.00085389 = 21.1252 BTC [+] {2} [00:19]
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pankkake what do you mean bitcoin network? [00:19]
bob___ ask the congressional research service (benkay's previous link) [00:20]
benkay the question is what the pointy headed ones in the usg mean by the bitcoin network, pankkake. [00:20]
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pankkake oh, I ignored because .pdf. yeah, ok, that clears it up [00:21]
pankkake we had plenty of fractionnal reserves already [00:21]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 19542 @ 0.00085512 = 16.7108 BTC [+] [00:22]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8200 @ 0.00084456 = 6.9254 BTC [-] [00:32]
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KRS1 you know the tcpip ethernetwork bitcoin network thing [00:49]
KRS1 i plug the tcpip cable into [00:49]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 27850 @ 0.00084777 = 23.6104 BTC [+] [00:51]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 26300 @ 0.00084704 = 22.2772 BTC [-] [00:59]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.555 = 1.11 BTC [-] [01:24]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 30 @ 0.02764733 = 0.8294 BTC [+] {5} [01:25]
* truffles (~truffles@dsl-vsabrasgw1-54fb64-140.dhcp.inet.fi) has joined #bitcoin-assets [01:25]
KRS1 HAI [01:25]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [CBTC] 1425 @ 0.00009347 = 0.1332 BTC [+] {5} [01:30]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 33650 @ 0.00084821 = 28.5423 BTC [+] {2} [01:32]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11120 @ 0.00085512 = 9.5089 BTC [+] [01:35]
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benkay does the setting of interest rates by the US Fed count as 'capital allocation'? [01:44]
benkay mircea_popescu jurov davout and bankers et al [01:45]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 95 @ 0.00515382 = 0.4896 BTC [-] {8} [02:03]
KRS1 bankster [02:04]
benkay banksters & co [02:07]
benkay excellent btc company name [02:08]
truffles banksy? [02:08]
KRS1 bankster=gangster [02:11]
KRS1 Gangster Bankers, Inc. [02:11]
KRS1 Rates you just can't refuse., [02:11]
pankkake 90% ROI (Rate of Incompetence) [02:14]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 41776 @ 0.00085518 = 35.726 BTC [+] {2} [02:16]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4700 @ 0.00085595 = 4.023 BTC [+] [02:21]
BingoBoingo Just a reminder. I have court Thursday so if I go missing for a month Occam's razor suggests my location would e the St Clair County Jail. [02:22]
truffles u beat some cop at chess? [02:22]
BingoBoingo I wish truffles [02:23]
truffles we can rematch now if uwant [02:23]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 14 @ 0.57430693 = 8.0403 BTC [+] {3} [02:24]
BingoBoingo truffles: Imma be offline soon for the weekend. [02:25]
truffles :( [02:25]
BingoBoingo I submitted a move though [02:26]
truffles ive got white collar on the side so im preped [02:26]
BingoBoingo Well. [02:27]
BingoBoingo Bb5 was a mistake [02:28]
truffles i didnt complain when i made mine _D [02:29]
BingoBoingo You just dun know bette ryet. [02:30]
truffles u drinking already? [02:30]
BingoBoingo 785 ml already [02:30]
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BingoBoingo Just remembet I take a break as soon as hockey coems on [02:31]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.575 = 1.15 BTC [+] [02:31]
truffles u mean snail pace [02:32]
truffles and it begins [02:34]
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diametric evening gents [02:44]
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truffles sigh [02:50]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9700 @ 0.00085271 = 8.2713 BTC [-] [02:51]
* truffles wonders if he's coming back today [03:00]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.58 BTC [+] [03:19]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 2000 @ 0.001 = 2 BTC [+] [03:30]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [DEALCO] 44 @ 0.00339336 = 0.1493 BTC [+] {3} [03:32]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 160 @ 0.0052946 = 0.8471 BTC [+] {5} [03:48]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 100 @ 0.00529752 = 0.5298 BTC [+] {4} [03:49]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 70 @ 0.00529971 = 0.371 BTC [+] {4} [03:54]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1696 @ 0.00085271 = 1.4462 BTC [-] [04:02]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 228 @ 0.00531639 = 1.2121 BTC [+] {10} [04:08]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 51 @ 0.00535 = 0.2729 BTC [+] {2} [04:09]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [CBTC] 36000 @ 0.00008503 = 3.0611 BTC [-] {9} [04:40]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 489 @ 0.0052507 = 2.5676 BTC [-] {10} [04:49]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 4 @ 0.571 = 2.284 BTC [-] [04:57]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.57 BTC [-] [04:59]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 48 @ 0.0052 = 0.2496 BTC [+] [05:01]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.57 BTC [-] [05:01]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 52 @ 0.00529998 = 0.2756 BTC [+] {4} [05:02]
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twizt man i dont understand how timewarner cable stock is so high [05:15]
twizt http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/Time-Warner-Cable-Loses-Another-215000-TV-Viewers-127299 [05:15]
ozbot Time Warner Cable Loses Another 215,000 TV Viewers | DSLReports, ISP Information [05:15]
VanCleef lol fail [05:15]
twizt fucking quant easing [05:15]
twizt all these fake gains in equities [05:16]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [DEALCO] 97 @ 0.003395 = 0.3293 BTC [-] [05:29]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 1000 @ 0.001 = 1 BTC [+] [05:32]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [MS] 40 @ 0.005 = 0.2 BTC [05:41]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6900 @ 0.00084997 = 5.8648 BTC [-] {2} [05:49]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.57 BTC [-] [06:01]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 45479 @ 0.00084807 = 38.5694 BTC [-] {3} [06:09]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 1000 @ 0.001 = 1 BTC [+] [06:09]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 250 @ 0.001 = 0.25 BTC [+] [06:24]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3263 @ 0.00084499 = 2.7572 BTC [-] [06:28]
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assbot [MPEX] [O] [O.USD.C080T] 5 @ 0.04231494 = 0.2116 BTC [-] [06:30]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.57 BTC [-] [07:06]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9950 @ 0.00084635 = 8.4212 BTC [+] [07:08]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 1392 @ 0.003 = 4.176 BTC [-] [07:14]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 67 @ 0.003 = 0.201 BTC [-] [07:25]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 533 @ 0.003 = 1.599 BTC [-] [07:29]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 22250 @ 0.00084635 = 18.8313 BTC [+] {2} [07:53]
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* smidge (~smiddel@HSI-KBW-134-3-254-11.hsi14.kabel-badenwuerttemberg.de) has joined #bitcoin-assets [08:15]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [DEALCO] 62 @ 0.0034 = 0.2108 BTC [+] [08:40]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [DEALCO] 29 @ 0.00348 = 0.1009 BTC [+] [08:41]
* caustiq (~quassel@c-98-246-192-183.hsd1.or.comcast.net) has joined #bitcoin-assets [08:52]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [DEALCO] 100 @ 0.00349 = 0.349 BTC [+] [08:53]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [DEALCO] 180 @ 0.00387722 = 0.6979 BTC [+] {2} [09:09]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15789 @ 0.00084644 = 13.3644 BTC [+] [09:23]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.571 BTC [+] [09:49]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15432 @ 0.00084644 = 13.0623 BTC [+] [10:14]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 26300 @ 0.00084603 = 22.2506 BTC [-] [10:23]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4716 @ 0.00084644 = 3.9918 BTC [+] [10:25]
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frankenmint hello? [10:33]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.571 = 1.142 BTC [+] [11:11]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 6 @ 0.02980003 = 0.1788 BTC [-] [11:12]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [CFIG] 1 @ 0.11 BTC [+] [11:12]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10250 @ 0.00084901 = 8.7024 BTC [+] [11:17]
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KRS1 hi [11:24]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [COG.F2] 1 @ 0.599 BTC [+] [11:52]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10069 @ 0.00085008 = 8.5595 BTC [+] [12:21]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 10 @ 0.02630062 = 0.263 BTC [+] {3} [12:22]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16900 @ 0.00085008 = 14.3664 BTC [+] [12:31]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8450 @ 0.00085217 = 7.2008 BTC [+] [12:35]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6000 @ 0.00085217 = 5.113 BTC [+] [12:36]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8700 @ 0.00085217 = 7.4139 BTC [+] [12:41]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7143 @ 0.0008523 = 6.088 BTC [+] {2} [12:56]
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b0n1 https://cloudhashing.com/contracts do you think this is a profitable offer if they offer a bonus of 300 gh fro platinum membership at the enf of january? [13:00]
ozbot Bitcoin Mining Contracts - Cloud Hashing [13:00]
b0n1 is there any big asic shipments coming up or any other reasons to cause unusually increases of the difficulty [13:01]
b0n1 ? [13:01]
pankkake yes, many new generations of mining equipment [13:02]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 26200 @ 0.00085294 = 22.347 BTC [+] {2} [13:09]
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b0n1 pankkake dont the new fast asic chips with 2 TH for roughly 6k USD only come about may? [13:20]
pankkake cointerra is supposed to delivery a big january batch [13:20]
pankkake deliver* [13:21]
b0n1 how big estimated? [13:21]
pankkake hashfast was supposed to deliver months ago; many preorders [13:21]
b0n1 how many hashes to deliver? [13:21]
pankkake https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0 has an estimate of preorders [13:21]
ozbot Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013 [13:21]
b0n1 thx pankkake really helpful [13:28]
b0n1 with this perspective, the offer doesnt look that attractive anymore [13:29]
pankkake glad to save you some btc :p [13:29]
b0n1 with an assumption of 20% diff increase we have a break even in 97 days [13:29]
b0n1 if its 25% we have no break even at all [13:30]
b0n1 maybe 25% is a bit too much to assume but anyway, its totally risky [13:30]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 12261 @ 0.00085326 = 10.4618 BTC [+] [13:41]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7245 @ 0.00085454 = 6.1911 BTC [+] [13:42]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.56999 = 1.14 BTC [-] [14:16]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 27500 @ 0.00085501 = 23.5128 BTC [+] {3} [14:21]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.56999 = 1.14 BTC [-] [14:35]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5150 @ 0.00085571 = 4.4069 BTC [+] [14:45]
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mircea_popescu aite, who dinged me [14:56]
mircea_popescu ;;later tell benkay well, in the meta sense that setting what and how much clothing chicks wear in your town counts as natality allocation. [14:56]
gribble The operation succeeded. [14:56]
mircea_popescu b0n1 currently the money is about 30:1 that difficulty will be over 2bn this month. [14:58]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16703 @ 0.00085274 = 14.2433 BTC [-] {2} [15:09]
Neil mircea_popescu: More like 50-to-1 I think. [15:12]
Neil I have to agree it's looking very likely [15:13]
Neil Everyone was saying nothing coming online, but it's gone up 25% since 1st Jan [15:13]
mircea_popescu ;;calc 458/7 [15:13]
gribble 65.4285714286 [15:13]
mircea_popescu 65 even [15:13]
Neil I reckon these companies are creating and mining for the house [15:13]
Neil ;;calc 358/7 [15:14]
gribble 51.1428571429 [15:14]
Neil Math [15:14]
Neil No-one seems willing to bet no yet... so probably higher to go [15:15]
mircea_popescu o right you are hehe [15:15]
mircea_popescu in general people seem to be more like fishing for "the sure thing" than acting strategically. [15:16]
mircea_popescu if real odds are 30 and the site shows 50 you're more likely to see people piling on the heavy side i think [15:16]
Neil Next diff change looks like ~ 1.82 bn [15:16]
mircea_popescu .d [15:17]
ozbot 1418481395.26264 | Next Diff in 325 blocks | Estimated Change: 23.6009% in 1d 17h 2m 52s [15:17]
mircea_popescu more like 1.75 neh ? [15:17]
Neil Nah; definitely over 1.8 [15:17]
Neil I reckon instantaneous diff is ~ 2bn [15:17]
Neil (i.e. from instantaneous hashrate) [15:18]
mircea_popescu instantaneous hash rate is a myth tho [15:19]
Neil I disagree. You can make good estimates of it. [15:20]
Neil There is of course quite wild variance, which is where a modicum of skill comes in, but not much [15:20]
mircea_popescu but hash rate is "how many times per second did we fail to solve a specified problem" [15:20]
mircea_popescu this in principle is infinity. [15:20]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 68100 @ 0.00084821 = 57.7631 BTC [-] [15:21]
mircea_popescu anyway, sipa's dirty estimator kind-of agrees with you, http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png [15:21]
Neil I track it in a s/s of my own; do my own thing :) [15:22]
Neil It's amazing the 25% replacement rate continues. [15:23]
assbot AMAZING COMPANY! [15:23]
Neil I wonder if we make 1 exahash/sec this year. [15:23]
mircea_popescu at the rate it's going... [15:24]
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Neil Well, baggsied that as a new proposition, and funded it :) [15:29]
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ThickAsThieves the Yes bets keep piling up, taking all my hard-earned bettings [15:39]
Neil ThickAsThieves: You could always bet No :) [15:41]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 64884 @ 0.00084716 = 54.9671 BTC [-] {2} [15:41]
ThickAsThieves weight drops too slowly :( [15:42]
Neil Satoshi was quite forward-thinking; clearly saw the possibility of such high difficulties given the FP-like format "bits" is encoded as [15:43]
mircea_popescu lol hard earned betting [15:43]
ThickAsThieves i'm always hard when I earn [15:44]
mircea_popescu you've not earnd till it pays out [15:44]
ThickAsThieves premature hardening [15:44]
Neil These difficulty bets should have a slightly larger window of closing to resolution than 5 days IMO. It tends to be too obvious then. At least a full cycle (10-12 days) should be the gap. [15:44]
mircea_popescu Neil i think our 50:1 bs is misstating the point. a guy betting no only gets 4x his btc [15:44]
mircea_popescu and let me point out to you that originally nobody thought there's a chance in hell it reaches 2bn by feb. [15:45]
mircea_popescu so the window was ample back when the bet was made. [15:45]
Neil True. A guy betting Yes just gets a crumb :) [15:45]
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ThickAsThieves even now you can throw 50 btc at it and get 3.5btc, but of course that will turn to .35 btc by the time the bet is over [15:45]
Neil I think the only one profiting from this bet is bitbet [15:46]
mircea_popescu so basically you can either risk 1 btc for 7 cents on one side, or risk 1 btc for 4 btc on the other side [15:46]
mircea_popescu this does not equate to 50:1, not really. [15:46]
ThickAsThieves basically betting that there's a fork or something [15:46]
mircea_popescu if there's a 2 day fork say the no people will make out like bandits. [15:47]
Neil 2-day fork, lol. [15:47]
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ThickAsThieves btcusd would go to 135 again [15:47]
ThickAsThieves hehe [15:47]
mircea_popescu the march one was what, 18 hours ? [15:47]
ThickAsThieves this reminds me [15:47]
ThickAsThieves back then, all the pool ops worked together [15:48]
Neil Not that long; I was watching it. Perhaps 12. [15:48]
ThickAsThieves but now, ghash.io is a big player [15:48]
mircea_popescu im pretty sure it was over 12 but under a full day [15:48]
ThickAsThieves do they play nice with all the other ops? [15:48]
mircea_popescu i find it fitting that the first comment on the largest prop bet in the history of bitcoin is "beware of this scammy website" [15:49]
Neil ThickAsThieves: It's still game theory; they'd lose if they piss too many players off. More incentive to be nice I think. [15:49]
mircea_popescu i suppose the #1 reason noobs are still being scammed blind is the fact that idiots run arround making false scammer claims all teh time [15:49]
Neil mircea_popescu: Well let's see if you pay out... [15:49]
mircea_popescu that's a point i guess. [15:49]
ThickAsThieves The boy who cried BFL [15:49]
Neil Yeah this is about $1.3m now. Insane. [15:50]
mircea_popescu Neil that gaming theory has the barb that it workls in reality, not in people's imagination. there's a huge premium on pissing off the right crowd of people. [15:50]
Neil Don't understand your 2nd sentence? [15:50]
ThickAsThieves After all the reddit scare, I wonder if the pool simply set up a way to anonymize some of its hashing [15:50]
Neil ThickAsThieves: That thought occurred to me too. [15:51]
mircea_popescu Neil take bitbet. part of its success has to do with me pissing all over the reddit crowd and its sensibilities. [15:51]
mircea_popescu basically bitcoin rewards exactly the opposite behaviour that us elections reward. [15:51]
Neil mircea_popescu: You're on reddit? Dunno the history there. [15:51]
mircea_popescu ;;google bitbet stole [15:51]
gribble BitBet Stole ~$7,000 from me (10 BTC) - Bitcoin Forum: ; BitBet - US Federal Minimum Wage will be raised above $7.25 by ...: ; BitBet - Bitfinex insolvent by end of April: [15:51]
mircea_popescu read teh first one [15:51]
Neil Ah yeah I know that one. [15:52]
ThickAsThieves they voted to return the money, why havent you!? [15:52]
ThickAsThieves :) [15:52]
mircea_popescu because i think their opinion is not worth the shit it's carved in. [15:52]
Duffer1 lol [15:52]
Duffer1 voting, that's cute [15:52]
mircea_popescu no but see, that's the electoral system. people with no skin in the game vote on how the game should be run [15:53]
mircea_popescu then you get the us govt. [15:53]
mircea_popescu another way of saying "concern trolling on a planetary scale" [15:53]
Neil ThickAsThieves: ghash.io is part itself (cex?) and part individual miners. They could move their own hashing to appear anon. Can't do that with external miners to the pool I think. [15:54]
ThickAsThieves i think it's funny that voting is optional [15:54]
ThickAsThieves Neil, I'm sure there's a way they could do it [15:54]
ThickAsThieves have it all be in the pool [15:54]
mircea_popescu they could just solve each block off a different ip. [15:54]
ThickAsThieves but not show as such [15:54]
mircea_popescu who's to stop them ? [15:55]
mircea_popescu even ipv4 cost like 2-300 bucks per c block [15:55]
Neil mircea_popescu: Then the pool payouts wouldn't match contributed hashrate. [15:55]
mircea_popescu ipv6 are free pretty much [15:55]
mircea_popescu neil why not ? [15:55]
ThickAsThieves they could sort that too probly [15:55]
Neil All GHash.io blocks are stamped that way. [15:55]
mircea_popescu no but they just broadcast the block off a new ip each time [15:56]
mircea_popescu they can trivially separate broadcasting, what's to keep them [15:56]
Neil But then what would they be paying miners with? A miner would notice he got a block and the pool didn't claim it, at some point. [15:56]
mircea_popescu i don't follow what you are saying at all. [15:56]
Apocalyptic neither do I [15:56]
Apocalyptic "A miner would notice he got a block" // how so ? [15:57]
ThickAsThieves the goal isnt to hide earnings, its to hide who made them from the public [15:57]
Apocalyptic miners just solve shares [15:57]
mircea_popescu and all the public has to go on is the very dubious blockchaininfo ip identification [15:57]
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Neil Apocalyptic: Miners don't know when they got the one that solved it? I'm sure they do. [15:57]
mircea_popescu sooo / [15:57]
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ThickAsThieves its okay for the miner to see what they solcve and get paid bonuses [15:58]
ThickAsThieves we only need to mask the source in public [15:58]
ThickAsThieves ghash.io is probly at 60% [15:59]
ThickAsThieves double-spending selectively [15:59]
ThickAsThieves :) [15:59]
mircea_popescu lol right [15:59]
mircea_popescu double spending selectively some confused dork's unheard of casino site [15:59]
mircea_popescu help help. [15:59]
decimation hi. I'm a noob to the channel, but I note the conversation shifted to mining - and I was wondering if anyone had experience with kncminer stuff? [16:00]
VanCleef i only buy labcoin hardware [16:00]
ThickAsThieves didnt kako buy one? [16:00]
mircea_popescu decimation you mean running it or what ? [16:00]
mircea_popescu i thought kako bought furries [16:00]
ThickAsThieves you may be right [16:01]
decimation yes. I ordered a "2nd batch" neptune for ~11 btc and I was wondering about the probability it would actually arrive and work would be [16:01]
Neil ThickAsThieves: Was that your comment about closing the bet now? hehe [16:01]
mircea_popescu afaik knc actually delivers. [16:01]
ThickAsThieves Neil, no, hehe [16:01]
Duffer1 decimation yea knc will deliver, just don't buy any more [16:01]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 21400 @ 0.00084527 = 18.0888 BTC [-] [16:01]
ThickAsThieves they may deliver, but will you get 11btc from it.... [16:02]
Neil lol [16:02]
mircea_popescu i'm looking forward to the "bitbet should close all the bets and send all the bitcoins to me plzkthx" [16:02]
mircea_popescu i know they're coming. [16:02]
decimation yeah, that's the dubious part, they claim 3 TH/s, but the difficulty in 6 months ... [16:02]
decimation perhaps I should hedge on bitbet :) [16:02]
ThickAsThieves like blockchain beggars [16:02]
ThickAsThieves that's a nextgen band name [16:02]
Duffer1 gambling is not hedging :P [16:02]
mircea_popescu ThickAsThieves in a functioning economy he gets it just in time to mine 10.98x btc off it [16:02]
ThickAsThieves The Blockchain Beggars [16:02]
ThickAsThieves The Blockchain Beggars Club [16:02]
pankkake knc delivers but from what I understand the miners eventually explode [16:02]
mircea_popescu pankkake all miners eventually explode. even the radeon ones, [16:03]
mircea_popescu and those had like you know, actual qa done on them [16:03]
pankkake gpus can be put in microwaves and they're as new! [16:03]
ThickAsThieves i sold one of my GPUs for more than I paid for it new [16:03]
mircea_popescu or in really really hot girl's snatches [16:03]
ThickAsThieves baffled me [16:03]
mircea_popescu i read it on reddit so it must be troe [16:04]
mircea_popescu http://bitbet.us/bet/712/bitcoin-difficulty-over-5-6b-before-april/ << these'd look a lot better seeded the other way lol [16:05]
ozbot BitBet - Bitcoin difficulty over 5.6B before April [16:05]
KRS1 https://bitcoinstarter.com/projects/85 [16:05]
ozbot Bitcoinstarter - Bitcoin Crowdfunding | PeerCover [16:05]
Neil 5.6bn is quite high; could easily miss on the downside there [16:05]
mircea_popescu so we got 2bn end of jan, 5.6 bn end of march, 14bn july 14th [16:05]
mircea_popescu sounds legit [16:05]
Neil July looking like the outlier [16:06]
Neil too low [16:06]
KRS1 what do you guys think of that? [16:06]
ThickAsThieves come March, itll be petahashes added through the day [16:07]
mircea_popescu KRS1 "yet another tranny thinking he's a woman / guy with dreamweaver thinking he's a coder / guy with a student loan thinking he's a financier making some dumbass social platform tht won't go anywhere and he won't stop talking about" [16:07]
KRS1 i have no idea how you can insure a bitcoin wallet. [16:07]
mircea_popescu but that's just me. [16:07]
KRS1 huh..its wallet insurance [16:07]
Duffer1 i don't see how it will be used for anything other than scamming [16:07]
mircea_popescu no it's not. it's a website and a dumbass. [16:07]
KRS1 hmm..ok [16:08]
mircea_popescu or a dumbass and his website, or a website and its dumbass or however this works. [16:08]
Neil I don't get it. [16:08]
ThickAsThieves dont bother [16:08]
Neil But then I'd have said that about bitcoin back in 2009 [16:08]
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mircea_popescu yes well just because we found a black swan is no reason to go looking for black lions. [16:08]
mircea_popescu the apex predator in africa is blond and that's that. [16:09]
KRS1 is it even possible to provide wallet insurance and successfully make a profit? [16:09]
Neil Wouldn't be surprised to see 2bn difficulty bet could get to 1500 total. Would that be a record? [16:09]
mircea_popescu KRS1 does it work irl ? anyone insure wallets ? [16:09]
KRS1 i cant see how [16:09]
KRS1 there is a new offering from the U.K. for that [16:10]
Neil KRS1: Only in a controlled and verified env I suspect. [16:10]
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mircea_popescu http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/ that's the prev record [16:10]
ozbot BitBet - BFL will deliver ASIC devices before March 1st [16:10]
decimation one can purchase jewelry insurance in the US [16:10]
mircea_popescu ~1690 btc [16:10]
Neil Ooh, that'd be tough [16:10]
ThickAsThieves Black lion: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_heeghxjKZE/T9fI6Cqtn7I/AAAAAAAACVE/OZADVRPqecw/s1600/Black%2Blion%2Bin%2Bmud.jpg [16:10]
KRS1 maybe thats why the U.K. offering is hosted on AWS [16:10]
mircea_popescu i knew that'd turn into a challenge :D [16:10]
KRS1 ok well I'll leave you guys alone..thanks anyway. [16:10]
mircea_popescu decimation yes, but not against "i accidentally flushed it down the toilet" scenarios [16:11]
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Neil I give it 60% chance of getting to 1690. The leeches will come in in about 1 week (on either side) when the outcome will be clear, even to scrape a 2% [16:12]
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Neil If it veers to no, I hate to think how big the bets become [16:13]
mircea_popescu srsly, if there's a sudden gulp and it looks like no have the upper hand... [16:13]
mircea_popescu whoa nelly. [16:13]
Neil bitbet's Jan earnings should be good [16:14]
mircea_popescu maybe some dork manages to send a donation bet for whatever, 5k btc [16:14]
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mircea_popescu prolly the sort of thing i deserve for my hybric nature. [16:15]
Neil The difficulty is known at the block prior to the block with the new difficulty (it's a 2015 block window). So theoretically bets in the period of the 2016th block should be refunded. [16:16]
Neil trivia [16:16]
ThickAsThieves heh [16:17]
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decimation http://www.perfectcircleinsurance.com/PerfectCircle/media/MediaLibrary/Images/content/Perfect-Circle-Jewelry-Insurance-Sample-Policy.pdf [16:20]
decimation There is an example jewelry insurance policy [16:21]
KRS1 hmm [16:21]
decimation they insure against loss; not intentional loss [16:21]
KRS1 yeah i dig it but...its not a bitcoin wallet. [16:21]
KRS1 its easier to lose or flush down the toilet..wondering how peercover will do this [16:21]
decimation Indeed, the risks are obviously much greater for a btc wallet [16:21]
KRS1 i bet the said wallet has to be hosted on their platform or something [16:22]
decimation and there are not any actuarial tables [16:22]
Neil https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty [16:22]
KRS1 and under 2btc for $X plan [16:22]
Neil "Here's a fast way to calculate bitcoin difficulty" folllowed by lots of spaghetti from Amir. [16:22]
Neil There's a much faster way that uses no logs or bignums... [16:23]
mircea_popescu decimation the argument could be brought that all loss of a bitcoin wallet is intentional. [16:23]
mircea_popescu Neil afaik that site/article is 1-2 years out of date throughout [16:23]
Neil The facts are right I think; the code sucks. [16:24]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 24937 @ 0.00084499 = 21.0715 BTC [-] [16:24]
Neil Though he doesn't mention the 2015 block peculiarity [16:24]
mircea_popescu the only actual datapoints are the block timestamps. [16:25]
mircea_popescu given the nature of hashing these can only be extrapolated into a hash estimate, which may vary arbitrarily much from the real value [16:25]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 290 @ 0.00514406 = 1.4918 BTC [-] {9} [16:31]
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diametric morning [16:40]
diametric afternoon or evening I suppose. [16:40]
KRS1 hey [16:42]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [CFIG] 10 @ 0.10739999 = 1.074 BTC [-] {4} [16:56]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.53619775 BTC [-] [17:09]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 68 @ 0.00538578 = 0.3662 BTC [+] {2} [17:17]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.5749999 BTC [+] [17:18]
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* Ogedei_ has quit (Ping timeout: 272 seconds) [17:22]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 250 @ 0.001 = 0.25 BTC [+] [17:25]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.5749999 BTC [+] [17:30]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 6 @ 0.5783333 = 3.47 BTC [+] {5} [17:54]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 58 @ 0.0053828 = 0.3122 BTC [-] [18:01]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 42 @ 0.0053828 = 0.2261 BTC [-] [18:08]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.5749999 BTC [-] [18:20]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 100 @ 0.00513209 = 0.5132 BTC [-] {4} [18:24]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 60 @ 0.0051512 = 0.3091 BTC [+] [18:28]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 290 @ 0.00511562 = 1.4835 BTC [-] {12} [18:29]
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assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 31092 @ 0.00084566 = 26.2933 BTC [+] {3} [18:37]
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ThickAsThieves ;;estimate [18:50]
gribble Next difficulty estimate | 1757489193.24 based on data since last change | 2051188187.74 based on data for last three days [18:50]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4400 @ 0.00084412 = 3.7141 BTC [-] [18:51]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [MS] 100 @ 0.005 = 0.5 BTC [19:05]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.5875 BTC [+] [19:08]
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assbot [HAVELOCK] [HIF] 210 @ 0.00048924 = 0.1027 BTC [-] {2} [19:16]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [MS] 250 @ 0.005 = 1.25 BTC [19:23]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 500 @ 0.001 = 0.5 BTC [+] [19:24]
mircea_popescu http://trilema.com/2014/more-about-caesar-cyphers/#comment-97491 << the mystery solved. [19:38]
ozbot More about Caesar cyphers pe Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu. [19:38]
mircea_popescu apparently my mistake was thinking the mobsters can spell. [19:38]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [KCIM] [PAID] 2.17250000 BTC to 86`900 shares, 2500 satoshi per share [19:59]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 2148 @ 0.001 = 2.148 BTC [+] [20:00]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 13550 @ 0.0008455 = 11.4565 BTC [-] [20:02]
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