The conundrums of the contemporaneous financier

So I've pretty much decided I'm going to buy 10 billion Euloraⁱ coppers to replenish the finances of my avatar there.

10 billion ECu means 100 Bitcoin, and 100 Bitcoin is a hefty sum. It's going to significantly increase the game's balance sheetⁱⁱ, obviously, and it's a significant commitment all around - how many real people go around with 100 BTC's worth in their pockets ? How many actual, physical families have that much sloshing around piggybanks and sofa cushions ? Inequality reigns supreme, most people in Africa live for less than a dollar a day and my avatar in a virtual world enjoys a hundred Bitcoin to spend on things that aren't even foodⁱⁱⁱ. Nuts, eh ?

I happen to agree, it's pretty fucking out there.

I could buy each girl a new car. Or one of the surprisingly cheap airplanes. Or various other things. Lots and lots of other things, the blowjob still goes for twenty a unit in approximately all the parts of the world where there live women you'd actually want to stick your penis into.^iv

Obviously, being a billionaire comes with the advantage that none of these are blocking, but instead each can be judged on their own merits, it's not a case of "congrats for surviving another year - now pick exactly one from this list of coulds". Even so, game copper, seriously ? It's not even gold!^v

I readily grant, and I openly confess similar considerations swirl in my own head as well. Nevertheless, there is method to this madness, and it goes as follows :

1. Back in February, the NPC trader in game started selling mining bundles, to everyone's delight. The total shipment as announced may well have weighted 2`319`405.412, whatever that is, but was also worth 503`351 * 2.5 * 1`000 + 67`832`655 * 2 * 30 + 755`038`378 * 1.5 * 5 = 10`991`124`635 ECu (about 110 Bitcoin). A lot of these sold in the intervening months, of course, but a lot are still left^vi, and the catch is, Electron still sells them at 135%. As explained in a different context this very well might be a license to print money, as no raw materials sell for that low. Even the most basic I buy for 150%, and some reach as high as 500%. By this logic, I put in materials I bought at 135%, and if I take out even a third^vii of the base value, if it sells at 500% I'm green. But then again... what if I don't make the third, or what if the prices don't hold, or what if ? Hm.
2. Minigame announced at some point (I meanwhile misplaced the reference) that should BTC/USD ratios increase significantly, it will float the ECu, but by a degree of magnitude and through the procedure of increasing everyone's cash tenfold, and then adding nine times the base value of all their other items, in cash. As was pointed out then, this exposes players holding large stores of items with high premiums to significant risk (because obviously the cash they get for nine tenths of their item value won't command the same premiums as the actual items). Consequently, were someone to invest 10 bn ECu in mining bundles and should then Bitcoin run off to who knows, 10`000 USD per or something, and should then Minigame float the ECu, that someone would sustain losses of 35/135 out of 90% of his investment, which comes to 2.(3)bn. Ouch. Evaluating this risk is particularly difficult. In spite of the game clocking ~30`000 man-hours of gameplay since February, only a few hundred Ordinary and a few Remarkable claims have been exploited, and they aren't evenly distributed. As a very quick and dirty estimation, the investor is banking on the theory that something like 1mn play-hours happen in Eulora before Bitcoin reaches a high enough value in US to trigger the floating of the currency. At the current rate this means about ten years, which... on one hand, it seems unlikely Bitcoin will long stay as deeply undervalued as it finds itself today ; on the other hand it seems very likely the Eulora playerbase will increase significantly in the coming years. Which is a likelier event, and which happens sooner ? Will the stock of mining bundles be used up before Bitcoin explodes ? Hm.

But whatever, to begin with I don't have to actually buy the bundles just because I have the money to do it, and for that matter maintaining a solid balance sheet is the most important ingredient of success^viii. And so... I've pretty much decided I'm going to buy 10 billion ECu.

What can I tell you!

PS. Yes the relation to tin women is very humorous.

PPS. It turns out a previous prediction I made and meanwhile entirely forgot was nevertheless exactly satisfied.

1. You know, the MMORPG Minigame (MPEx:S.MG) publishes. [↩]
2. Last month's report put total player holdings at 49.22809291 BTC, so the move'd triple it. [↩]
3. Eating hasn't been implemented yet. [↩]
4. Could this be more than happenstance, I wonder ?! [↩]
5. Laugh, laugh, but also think. What's in a name ? [↩]
6. Kinda difficult to guess, but maybe 8bn or so worth ?

   Actually scratch that, I just looked, Electron still has 749`2268`954 ECu worth of bundles for sale. The players soaked up a better than expected 32% during the interval! [↩]

7. In general Eulora spits out in loot what it takes in. The third is however relevant because of that ancient rule of thirds, or in other words there's no guarantee it'll spit it back at you, or before you go broke. [↩]
8. See also An era ends today. A new era starts today :

   Moreover, we will always maintain supreme financial strength, operating with at least $20 billion of cash equivalents and never incurring material amounts of short-term obligations. As we view these and other strengths, Charlie and I like your company’s prospects. We feel fortunate to be entrusted with its management.

   [↩]