MiniGame (S.MG), April 2016 Statement

Wednesday, 04 May, Year 8 d.Tr. | Author: Mircea Popescu
S.MG incoming and outgoing
Incoming Outgoing
Description Value Description Value
Copper sale 0 Game server 1.17415952
Loot pool provisioning 0.0i
Total 0.00000000 Total 1.17415952
    S.MG assets
    Account 01.04.2016 Net change 30.04.2016
    Cash 8`476.29608664 1.17415952 8`475.12192712
    Tangibles 269.28815520 0.18188796ii 269.10626724
    Intangibles and goodwill 69.167449967 0.18188796 69.349337927
    Total assets 8`813.57753228
    S.MG liabilities
    Account 01.04.2016 Net change 30.04.2016
    Player holdingsiii 38.59604181 0.54798936iv 38.04805245
    Shareholder equity 8`776.15564999 0.62617016 8775.52947983
    Total liabilities 8`813.57753228

      S.MG has a total of 88`096`605 authorised shares outstanding. The shareholder equity per share implied value is thus 0.00009956 BTC.

      S.MG has Special Stock Warrants outstanding, as follows :

      # Fingerprint Shares BTC Par
      1 6160E1CAC8A3C52966FD76998A736F0E2FB7B452 88`096`605 8`809.6605 1
      3 5015BD3D0AE659C8B8632F31CF2950F23C844002 192`307 25 1.3
      4 E72DCCB73A5E06694C5CD781D5196EE6390F999E 10`000 1 1
      5 BBB0A99950037551F533850A677ABD62D0AEE7D7 10`000 1 1
      6 E72DCCB73A5E06694C5CD781D5196EE6390F999E 170`000 17 1
      7 E72DCCB73A5E06694C5CD781D5196EE6390F999E 250`000 25 1
      8 E72DCCB73A5E06694C5CD781D5196EE6390F999E 250`000 25 1
      T 88`978`912 8`903.6605 1.00065

        Provisional statement, will be considered accepted within 24 hours. Make any observations or corrections below.


        Let's go through some historical retention data, more for future reference than anything.

        Player Retention. Overall time in game logged in by characters created in the given quarter.v

        Quarter >3m >30m >2h >10h >32h >64h >128h >256h
        2015 Q2 13 13 12 8 7 6 6 6
        2015 Q3 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 0
        2015 Q4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2
        2016 Q1 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0
        2016 Q2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0

          And now let's look at daily averaged VW/svi :


          The total value is about 1.5 bn ECu, which over the interval (starting mid-July 2015) comes to about 60vii ECu/second as an overall average.

          1. Note that we intend to commit substantial resources to this line in the coming months. []
          2. This could have been a lot worse, considering this month we had the largest pop in history - 362 Multifunctional Samovars worth about 50 million ECu. []
          3. The nominal (ie, what merchant pays) of all owned items plus cash held. The value of skills is nominally 0. []
          4. The players managed to nominally lose money even though they made gains through playing chiefly on the account of the very successful official auction, which yielded 82 mn ECu for S.MG at an average mark-up of 420% (meaning - 76.2% of that 82 mn ECu, ie about 62.47 mn ECu or 0.62476190 BTC went straight into our coffers). There's another one scheduled for May. Note that the mark-up on these auctions is established entirely by players, and in a sense can be regarded as a proxy for the health of the game economy, and by extension, society. []
          5. To form your own idea as to the idiocy of the original Planeshift team : compare the code for the table as found below with the code the native administration package uses to render the same data. You will have to take my word that this is a fair selection, representative of the level of conceptual confusion and deep misunderstanding of the structure and structuring of things big and small, abstract or concrete exhibited by the derps in question ; or otherwise you could ask diana_coman. []
          6. The core of Eulora, as the core of any fulfilling, enjoyable or interesting activity humans ever did or evere will engage in, is the expenditure of known resources for unknown returns. This VolksWagen - by its nature a kin of energy - can also be put in terms of power, for instance as here by taking a day's total W and dividing it by that day's seconds, resulting in a ... VolksWagen per second. More or less, anyway. []
          7. To give people with in-game experience some idea : a Chetty Stick takes ~7 minutes to fire (depending on skill) and decays 20`000 ECu. This means that firing one stick adds ~47 VW/s to the average of those 7 minutes, and about a quarter ECu to the day's VW/s average. Overcrafting one Doubtful Tome (bv 88`462 ECu), with a blueprint of quality 107, the bundle at quality 247 and the end product at quality 172 means that for about half hour's labour (depending on skill) you add 8`846 * 1.07 + 88`462 * (2.47 - 1.72) + 2`172 + 211 = 78194.72 ECu in total, ie ~43 ECu/s to that half hour's averages or 0.90 to the day's. Without belabouring the math, 60 ECu/s in daily averages comes to something like 250 Chetty Sticks burned by players that day, or a coupla Remarkable claims mined or such heavy business.

            Note that a maximum VW/s can't be calculated in the absolute sense, as players can (and do!) regulate its aperture through the overcraft they choose (because the same item takes the same time to process, based on its base value and the player's skill, independently of the OC involved and therefore larger OC drop means larger VW/s thoroughput), but nevertheless can be estimated at around a maximum of 40 to maybe 80 or 100 ECu/s per active player as the game currently stands. Exceptions are possible, but as per the law of averages not likely. This laterally means that currently a player can not risk in excess of about 8ish million ECu in any given day no matter what he does (with the obvious exception of engaging in trade - buying expensive items doesn't take nearly as long as all that). Since we enforce a one account per player policy, this sort of capping is not tenable on the long term - and the higher powered players are visibly pushing against it as it is. Currently increased skill allows the player some respite from this, and a tendency to bankroll and direct new players perhaps even more so . In the future improved tools as well as the ability to hire NPCs to do work for one (after buying a house and properly furnishing it for the purpose) will provide further escape valves. []

          Category: S.MG
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          9 Responses

          1. Shareholder`s avatar
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            What is the cause of the massive drop midway in the VW/s graph?

          2. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
            Mircea Popescu 
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            That drop is seen in the 2nd half of November 2015, and coincides with a change in game mechanics that introduced time delays for activities. Prior to that players could instantly process/expend resources, resulting in the peaks you see. After that, all activity took time, which is the cause of the flat valley right after ; as the playerbase broadened and its skilled improved, VW/s pick up but don't yet quite reach the fever pitch of Q4 2015.

          3. Shareholder`s avatar
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            On the basis of YoY reports we see that shareholder equity went from 8`799.06574689 to 8`771.66381386, a 27.40193303 BTC loss, while reported income in this interval in the form of sold ECU was 7.00000000 + 10.0 + 7.0 + 6.00000951 + 2.32661832 = 32.32662783 (of which realised 32.32662783 - 30.43619699 (current player holdings) = 1.89043084) and server costs were 27.38795484 (plus there have been some smaller --and unsuccessful --attempts at marketing). All this makes S.MG cash-positive in 2015.

            Adding footnote viii in the mix this says that S.MG has produced ~3500 billable hours in 2015 (12`452`593 / 3600 = 3459), for which it has actually billed 1.89043084 BTC, or about 25 cents an hour - roughly in line with the market, on an expense structure roughly 20 times that (without counting any financing costs, such as for instance the impact of warrants).

            The good news is that the cost structure is well fixed, and therefore should S.MG produce 30 to 40 thousand billable hours in 2016 it will see actual profitability. As things stand currently, S.MG breaks even on Eulora if and when average online server population reaches... 4 (= 35000 hours/ 24 in a day / 365 days in a year)?

          4. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
            Mircea Popescu 
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            This is correct, and in fact shareholder equity jumped ~4.5 BTC to 8`776.15564999 BTC so far this year (firs trimester), reflecting the fact that the last day we had less than a 4.0 daily player average was (excluding unexpected downtime on April 15th), March 25th (even though the monthly average for March is still above 4.0). In fact we reached a 7.0 ie ~170 hours played yesterday.

            Eulora is clearly both enjoyable and profitable, the challenge ahead is managing player acquisition costs - but of course there's a plan for that.

          5. Shareholder`s avatar
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            Thanks for all the hard work.

          6. Donald Truck`s avatar
            Donald Truck 
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            Lol you should pitch to Sony

          7. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
            Mircea Popescu 
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            @Shareholder Cheers.

            @Donald Truck Nice nick, but no, Sony ain't got enough dough to buy my shit.

          8. Nassim Taleb`s avatar
            Nassim Taleb 
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            Bitbet made 87.4526978 in 2015, sold for 86. Therefore S.MG value ~4.5 BTC yayayaya

          9. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
            Mircea Popescu 
            Thursday, 5 May 2016

            Either that or S.MG could buy Apple. Depends who you ask.

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