No, it's not the revenue.

Tuesday, 11 February, Year 6 d.Tr. | Author: Mircea Popescu

assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 90400 @ 0.00085357 = 77.1627 BTC [-] {4}
copumpkin That's a big MPOE sale there. MPOE has a remarkably deep book.
pankkake What I don't understand is why the other things don't have that volume. Well at least BitBet. It's operating.
mike_c It's because S.MPOE is so huge. S.BBET actually has a higher share turnover over the last 6 months than S.MPOE.
mircea_popescu Interesting.
pankkake Oh.

mircea_popescu $vwap s.mpoe
mpexbot mircea_popescu: S.MPOE 1 day: average: 0.00085721 high: 0.00086297 low: 0.00084891 volume: 1624150 btc: 1392.23827571 7 day: average: 0.00087835 high: 0.00093912 low: 0.00082189 volume: 7039964 btc: 6183.54502157 30 day: average: 0.0009022 high: 0.00101414 low: 0.00082189 volume: 26985544 btc: 24346.2590462

mircea_popescu $vwap s.bbet
mpexbot mircea_popescu: S.BBET 1 day: no data 7 day: average: 0.000621 high: 0.00062299 low: 0.00062099 volume: 9360 btc: 5.8125299 30 day: average: 0.00069705 high: 0.0009 low: 0.0006 volume: 16002 btc: 11.1542499

mircea_popescu ;;calc 24346.2590462 / 1000000000 / 0.0009022
gribble 0.0269854345447

mircea_popescu ;;calc 11.1542499 / 10000000 / 0.00069705
gribble 0.00160020800516

mircea_popescu Not quite. 'Course... you did say six months.
mike_c To redeem myself, since July 1:
mike_c ;;calc 80819516 / 1000000000
gribble 0.080819516

mike_c ;;calc 1452230 / 10000000
gribble 0.145223

mircea_popescu Aha. S.DICE was also outtrading S.MPOE for a while there. But I guess overall yeah, just damned hard to beat.

mike_c Wow.. so, also since July 1 those trades meant 70,000 btc in volume on MPOE! And 203 btc on S.BBET. So, that's why moar volume on MPOE :)
mircea_popescu Actually...

mike_c Well, cause/effect, whatever.
mircea_popescu Tell you what, ~8% of the mkt cap trading over ~7 months is just about exactly right. Best scam in history, every way you look at it it's legit. So basically two good dividend months in a row for BBET killed the volume.

mike_c Nobody wants to sell.
mircea_popescu I guess the fundamental negotiation going on has tyre kickers and car collectors on either side, and they have trouble finding common ground. Team A being "I don't care how good these Internet funbux corps look" and team B going "Unless I need money to buy rope to hang myself I'm not selling my BTC securities". In the end... this being exactly how greatness is built. By the time they do find that common ground... look out. All the bitching about how difficult it is or it isn't to acquire btc with fiat is irrelevant. That's not where the hot core of btc is happening. This is.

mike_c Turn on the hft. More volume instantly.
mircea_popescu No rush, volume can come later. Let people figure shit out first.

mike_c Oh yeah, I was kidding. More volume will come with increasing revenue I believe.
* mircea_popescu checks out Facebook revenue.

mircea_popescu ;;calc 0.31 / 700
gribble 0.000442857142857
mircea_popescu Check it out, 4428 satoshi per share!

mircea_popescu ;;calc 63.55 / 700
gribble 0.0907857142857

mircea_popescu So basically Facebook trades at 100x S.MPOE on 4x the revenue per sharei. I would say it is definitely not the revenue.
mike_c Well, S.MG trades at a higher revenue multiple than S.MPOE tooii. But I still think revenue will help :)

mircea_popescu I doubt it. What will help is the passive effect of people hearing about S.MPOE and forgetting about Facebook. Because see, Facebook existed back in the day when Myspace was trading for 700mn. It's just "nobody" had any idea, because the future is totally unknowable and nobody could have imagined they'd use a coffee mug as a champagne flute. A "social network" with nothing at all can not begin to stand up to the Central Bank of Bitcoin. It's a contest between a cockroach and a bulldog.

(This conversation has been edited for clarity. The original is recorded over in the friendly log.)

To help drive this point home : Twitter lost a dollar per share last quarter, it never saw a profit ever in its entire public life and yet it's still trading at ~8 bitcents per share (and let us not even delve into the pile of other sad tech sector stories available, we'd be here all night).

More importantly : Google is trading at about 1.67142857 BTC per share, and reported ttm net income avail to common of about 0.05428571 BTC. That's about 3.2%. Meanwhile S.MPOE is trading at about 0.0009022 BTC per share, and distributed, which is much better than reporting it, 0.00001010 BTC per share. That's about 1.1%. S.MPOE will be two years old in April, and as an exericse for the reader (encouraged by how informative the previous one turned out to be), please find a company in any field in the history of companies that a) made money every single month of its history without exceptions and b) was within 1/3 of the market leader in its second year. Add the list as a comment, I am truely curious.

Summa: the revenue ? I dun think so.

  1. S.MPOE per-share revenue was 1010 ttm []
  2. Not quite, it's actually trading within 5% of its book value or something like that. []
Category: MPEx
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2 Responses

  1. The comparison wasn't between S.MPOE and Facebook though. It was between S.MPOE and the other stocks on MPEx.

    From Jan 1, 2013:
    S.MPOE: 16200 btc in revenue / 221000 btc in trading volume = 0.073
    S.BBET: 189 btc in revenue / 2546 btc in trading volume = 0.074

    Incontrovertible proof! Statistics never lie.

  2. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    Mircea Popescu 
    Tuesday, 11 February 2014

    Ha! So less BTC in revenue is actually worse than smaller amount of phone numbers.

    But anyway, I muchly prefer my comparison :D

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