The broad and the million fireants. A parable.

Friday, 05 April, Year 5 d.Tr. | Author: Mircea Popescu

benkay Don't know how much I care about people who buy and sell individual coins.
MJR_ My philosophy is this : one million people buying one coin = one million coins on the buy side.
mircea_popescu MJR_ one woman's arm = 2lbs of sweet caress. 2mn fireants = 2lbs of pure pain.
MJR_ mircea_popescu: Good point. Not sure how it relates though...

The above was happening ten minutes before midnight. The below was going down a minute after :

assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.28800001 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 8 @ 0.288 = 2.304 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 10 @ 0.285 = 2.85 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.284 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 10 @ 0.28 = 2.8 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 8 @ 0.278 = 2.224 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.278 = 0.556 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.276666 = 0.5533 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 34 @ 0.275 = 9.35 BTC [-]
assbot [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 24 @ 0.275 = 6.6 BTC [-]
MJR_ fuck
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7585 @ 0.00070706 = 5.3631 BTC [+]
assbot [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6215 @ 0.00070719 = 4.3952 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu .275 srsly ?!@

MJR_ I know. This is kinda great on one level, hmmm...
MJR_ ;;calc 890/276100
gribble 0.00322346975733
MJR_ ;;calc 0.00322346975733*12
gribble 0.038681637088
MJR_ Almost 4 percent using one of the worst months as the test case.
mircea_popescu And in Bitcoin.

MJR_ And in reference to monetarist...exactly.
mircea_popescu People have no clue. They'll learn.

MJR_ Yes, but hopefully I can scoop up a big chunk of the float before they do.
mircea_popescu The ability to make bad deals is what teaches people to stick to good ones.

MJR_ Good point. I am only annoyed from a "show the best performance" perspective. I am very happy from a "get the best investment" perspective.
mircea_popescu yes well... here's the thing : A lot of newbs playing around introduce distortion in the marketplace. Let's consider the life of Noob. Actually fuck this, I'ma write an article, brb.

As you've perhaps guessed, you're reading the article. So here goes, let's consider the life of Noob.

Noob wakes up one morning, because the alarm is beeping. Does his morning routine, goes to work, does his work routines, comes back, watches TV, goes to sleep.

The next morning Noob's routine is interrupted by catching a glimpse of his eyes in the mirror. This he always hates even if he can't admit to hating it, because it makes him consider himself, and it ain't pretty. Anything is good to escape this tarpit, anything! What ? WHAT!! A, last night, on the telly! There was this meth-powered talking head droning on about some new thing, a cyber something. Maybe he should give that a look. Definitely. He'll give it a look. He's smart. He gives things looks.

Routine continues. At some point at work spends half hour googling blingdoing and borkdongs until finally stumbles on a link to a 2011 video in which Amir Taaki explains maffs and stuff. He now understands it! Look, there's a dedicated reddit! He will therefore be the office expert on Bitcoin now!

He's an evangelist! He's a trendsetter. He's involved, he gets new things, do you realise ? No hands, mom! No hands!

What's the cost of all this ? Hum, a hundred and more per Bitcoin ? Better buy half. Or a quarter. There's this service created just for Noob, something called BitcoinAOL. You can tell it's targetted to him specifically by the "Buy $1 million worth of Bitcoin" buttons they sport. His halfquarter crown is delivered two weeks lateri.

Well, what now ? What can be done with this strange token he's paid half a bartab on ? Perhaps he could invest it. What's this S.DICE thing ? Looks like something. Buy some. At market, because while Noob has absolutely no idea of economy - which he's never even as much as considered - he is one of the human herd of cattle, and as such the efficient market theory comes natural to him. Because that's what the efficient market theory is, the baseline set of beliefs shared by people who have no idea about economics.

Two weeks later... sell some. At market. Everyone's doing it. Buy something else (seems hot). Sell it (why not). Quick, the Bitcoin's going up, buy more. Follow the trend! Be unique just like everyone else! Now quick, sell what you just bought. Even if at a loss. Why ? Don't ask for a reason now, you didn't ask for a reason when you bought now did you!

Noob will reconstruct history retrospectively to make himself look like he profited for as long as he believes Bitcoin is "hot". He will reconstruct history retrospectively the other way if he starts to belive Bitcoin is "a Ponzi". He does not understand these words, as is the case with all the words he uses. They don't need a meaning for him, because when he was in school some idiot who couldn't find a job digging ditches was pretending to be his teacher, and taught him that dictionaries are for azns, and he as a lucky, priviledged, American kid should just try and sorta guess what words may mean based on the context. Which is great, makes him that much more "receptive" (ie, vulnerable) to advertising - a method of crowd control that only works if your brain was kept in a box on a shelf somewhere since about the age of nine.

The market benefits from the intellectual contributions of people active in it. That's what the market basically is, a sort of centrifuge : you pour in milk (ie, people), you run the machine, you collect the cream.

The market is a beautiful thing, it has only one design flaw : you can't get cream churning water. Moreover, even if there's some milk in there, diluting it enough makes churning impossible anyway.

This is the statist paradigm, this is how socialism is supposed to work : if you sufficiently increase the number of the very stupid you can finally pretend like the market "doesn't work", and have your bff get the fat paychecks for all his hard work down at the Central Planning Office.

My idea is that we shouldn't have more people involved in Bitcoin than we can prove have a clue or we can provedly educate. Otherwise the entire process turns too close to putting a seedling through a sandblaster. What can little grains of sand do, right ?

———
  1. Sorta, kinda, but to quote the freakshow,

    It's one thing to lose people's bitcoins or randomly delay/cancel transactions (both of which Coinbase has been accused of). People know that bitcoin is still young and the companies supporting it are inexperienced, so they expect that.

    []

Category: Bitcoin
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14 Responses

  1. My idea is that we shouldn’t have more people involved in Bitcoin than we can prove have a clue or we can provedly educate. Otherwise the entire process turns too close to putting a seedling through a sandblaster. What can little grains of sand do, right ?

    Well current Bitcoin value in USD is based on investment done by retards, if you retire retards bitcoin will eventually be depleted of value, because "teh elite" could either not invest so much in bitcoin, either there won't be any actual trade: some firm has bitcoin, issues bitcoin per usd and trades bitcoin to .. itself and it's investors, which is pretty much a closed daughter-father company? Srsly.

    That's the american economy. You have Dolla. Dolla is enforced on everyone to use, by trade or war. Dolla doesn't value anything and it exists out of cotton paper. Dolla is valued because US wants so. Everyone trades with the Dolla, which gets out and ends in US.

    Here we have Bitcoin. It is issued in blocks by some "decentralized" peer-wlan-p2p computers, which are not centralized but the algorithm pretty much makes it so by issue limit of 21 milion of how big it was again. Bitcoin is used on the internet and it has no value on itself. Bitcoin gets pegged to the Dolla, which does not have value on itself, but US pretend it has, so both Dolla and Bitcoin get to have value.

    Dolla and Bitcoin try to have a "liberal market" where everyone can have a private firm except that ~each month true business is actually money laundering and ponzi or etc so Interpula must come to confiscate all, pretty much like ~each month some run with a Bitcoin db valued in some thousand Bitcoins.

    Eventually all business fails and US firms are taken by the State, eventually all Bitcoin traders cease to exist because it's too risky, because issue has stop, because dollar fell, because so on.

    lalallalalala

  2. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    2
    Mircea Popescu 
    Saturday, 6 April 2013

    You're an idiot. Go away.

  3. You could rather try to answer the issues: lack of intrinsical value, pegged to currency out of air, current value maintained by a bubble of retards who want moar free money to buy plastic ponies to stick it in and stay at home.

  4. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    4
    Mircea Popescu 
    Saturday, 6 April 2013

    These are only "issues" in the pop psychology sense of that term, as mental problems of the subject attempting to mix himself in the discussion. They have nothing to do with Bitcoin.

  5. You just can't seem to be able to accept your "elite" jumbo talking doesn't work for everyone.

  6. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    6
    Mircea Popescu 
    Saturday, 6 April 2013

    Why's "everyone"'s mouth open if there's no cock going in and out of it ?

  7. Casa intre musca si sasa mire prostii.

  8. Da' tocmai ca are valoare, tarane. Faptu' ca e in afara controlului vreunui stat anume face taxarea foarte amuzanta, de-un exemplu, chestie care convine multora. Deja ai o masa suficient de mare de oameni care si a) au bani si b) interes ca Bitcoin sa functioneze. Nu mai vorbim de valoarea din perspectiva anonimitatii, consider ca nu esti tampit si ai idee despre ce vorbesc. Din momentul in care o chestie ale valoare ea va fi comercializata si va avea o rata de schimb fata de alte simboluri ale valorii (alte monede nationale, etc).

    Argumentu' ca-i bula se sustine fix atata vreme cat exista diversi retarzi care sa o intretina. Asta nu afecteaza valorile intrinseci aratate dinsus (sumar si doar spre exemplu), si nu e o trasatura proprie a monezii bitcoin. Tot asa, nici existenta bulei imobiliare nu a demonstrat in nici un fel ca ipotecile ar fi rele prin ele insele.

  9. Aia cu bitcoin e inafara statului dar suntem anonimi si bitcoin exista => oameni cu bani e de un umor ciclic ce nu ti-l poti imagina.

    Pai nu-i o trasatura da' pica valoarea. O fi bitcoin un ideal, da' aici e vb de valoarea pe piata/forex, ca aia e relevant.

    Sunt mai mult decat sigur ca pentru oricine e foarte convenabil sa fi investit in 2010 vreo 100 dolari pentru 100 bitcoin sau cat era atunci, si acum 100 bitcoin aia sa fie 10000 dolari. Si nu poate fi alimentat decat de retarzi cursul asta. In schimb plm tu Mircica o arzi pe blog cu "elita" care sa preia bitcoin pana cand nu ne ducem pe pula. Pai stai, nu mai e vorba de facut bani, vai avem pasarele cu ramuri de maslini si utopii, sa nu ne pice banul virtual. Nici ma-ta nu te crede.

  10. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    10
    Mircea Popescu 
    Sunday, 7 April 2013

    Meri ma, pica valoarea. Deocamdata valoarea de piata pe bitcoinu' mediu este deasupra valorii de piata a puletelui mediu. Gen tu. Tu de exemplu la ora asta esti sub un Bitcoin, si ce-i mai amuzant de-aici : cacaturile ce ti le inchipui tu ca-s argumente se aplica perfect in cazu' tau personal. Uite io de exemplu as proteja un Bitcoin, da' nu te-as proteja pe tine, ca esti prost si oricum la nevoie facem altu'. Da' ce pula, mars la salam.

  11. Vexare`s avatar
    11
    Vexare 
    Sunday, 7 April 2013

    Da' cine zisa ca-s argumente, sunt pe la cvasiintrebari, pe acolo pe undeva.
    Pai pica. Sugi pula daca ajunge iar 20 sau ceva de genul, ca nu poti retrage sume prea mari nu? Sau nu prea cred ca-ti ofera nimeni banii in usd pe 2000 bitcoin sa-i scoti tu acum instant, sau daca-i retrage scade cursul si nu mai are niciun rost pe viitor. In orice caz mda, cum valoarea e oricum crescuta cu mult decat era cand ai investit, tehnic n-ai pierderi.

    Cum facem altu', vai, tu esti tati? Lol.

  12. Mircea Popescu`s avatar
    12
    Mircea Popescu 
    Sunday, 7 April 2013

    Dar te rog sa ai mare grija sa ma tii la curent cu ce credinte-pareri-impresii si alte fecaloame se mai formeaza pe-acolo pe margine, ca ie deosebit de interesant pentru mine si de asemenea imi pasa.

  13. Vexare`s avatar
    13
    Vexare 
    Sunday, 7 April 2013

    Stiu, stiu.

    Bre, ia te rog pagina asta. Scrii si tu un articol similar explicand frumos unde gresesc si criticii si muie astia cu miturile lor care dau linkuri de Wikipedia pretinzand ca-i o sursa serioasa. Sau ai scris si am pierdut eu?

    Porcariile astea cu "elita", cu "nici dolarul", "nici aurul", "statul nu are cum sa" sunt niste presupuneri scoase din cur asa, din materia fecala a mintii iar restul sunt pentru self-boost, ca mama ce destept ma cred eu, sunt si elita, am si bani si toti criticii are mituri.

    Hai mars. E evident ca toti investitorii tai nu pot fi altceva decat labari sau average american sarac care s-a trezit el dimineata cu revelatia pe mutra lui, in oglida, dupa ce a facut cearcane la 'vrei sa fii miliardar tho' aseara.

    A ca nu scriu nici eu vreun contra-argument serios, dar de ce sa distrugem corola de sofisme a lumii..

  14. Vexare`s avatar
    14
    Vexare 
    Sunday, 7 April 2013

    *unde gresesc ei.

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