MPOE, rezultate August 2012
Rulaj total 75`648 contracte, din care -12`312 +7`100 CALL, -32`472 +23`764 PUT.i
Venituri : 10`110.90263456 BTC, din care :
- vinzari de contracte : 10`016.30636953 BTC
- exercitii favorabile : 94.59626503 BTC
Cheltuieli : 14`651.32416421 BTC, din care :
- cumparari de contracte : 11`562.32029052 BTC
- exercitii nefavorabile : 2`622.33420727 BTC
- cheltuieli cu capitalul : 466.66966642 BTC (9`333.58 × 4.9999%)
Rezultat total net : -4`540.42152965 BTC
Venituri :
- Venituri din taxa pe vinzare : 309.03038447 BTC (Rulaj total : 154`515.19223830 BTC)
- Venituri din inscrieri de noi membri : 940 BTCii
- Venituri din consultanta si alte activitati : 68.50 BTC
Cheltuieli :
- CSR : 10 BTCiii
Rezultat total net : 1`307.53038447 BTC
Total actiuni : 1`000`000`000, din care :
- Mircea Popescu, 980`770`396 actiuni,
- MPOE.ETF, 4`077`552 actiuni,
- Terti 15`152`052 actiuni.
Dividend total : 1`239.03038447 BTC.
Capital total : 9`333.58 BTC, din care
- 1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 94.53038499 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 945.30377439 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 1918.33834257 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1Efr7txsbxMu2U5oTnFu4tDHVbVPvRAyBT, 1400.00000888 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 2900.00000888 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1D7YtrxnyK3ug3Rvp9jX66T8kVzWww9Jr8, 1886.34671031 BTC @ 4.9999%
Pierdere alocata capitalului : 4`540.42152965 BTC
Pierdere per BTC : 0.48646087.
Lista finala a creditorilor :
1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 48.54505081 BTC1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 48.54505081 BTC1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 48.54505081 BTC- 1J9AN7LiDNDUfzAwk8D3uBLT5diWHFFCh5, 485.45046937 BTC
- 1swAzHw1zTWqoi5184VinvUxLWnBskPVW, 985.14178622 BTC @ 4.975%
- 1Efr7txsbxMu2U5oTnFu4tDHVbVPvRAyBT, 718.95477396 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1A2hqHVSUERAT3t1yJ7ggYCQccvH6pZGZm, 1489.26345546 BTC @ 4.9999%
- 1D7YtrxnyK3ug3Rvp9jX66T8kVzWww9Jr8, 968.71283151 BTC @ 4.9999%
- Mircea Popescu (creditor de ultima instanta)
I. MPOE a suferit ceea ce s-ar putea foarte bine sa fie insider trading.
O buna cantitate de CALL au fost cumparate de clienti in Iulie (peste 1`000), la care se mai adauga o buna cantitate cumparata de-atunci incolo (peste 2`000) cit si-o buna cantitate de PUT deep in the money vindute short (P180T, P190T, P200T, in total peste 5`000). CALL-urile au fost executate putin inainte de anuntul inchiderii Bitcoin Savings and Trust. PUT-urile au fost rascumparate pe piata in momentele imediat ulterioare anuntului respectiv, cumpararile continuind pina la inversarea pozitiei (deci de la +5`000 robotul a trecut la -5`000 pe aceasta clasa de trei valori). Pierderile totale suferite din aceste operatii se cifreaza la ~4`500 BTC, si acopera in totalitate proastele rezultate ale lunii curente.
Mi-e neclar care ar fi pasii de urmat, fie pentru a stabili adevarul in ce priveste aceasta suspiciune (care, la drept vorbind, poate foarte bine sa fie perfect neintemeiata) fie pentru a pazi de evolutii asemanatoare in viitor. Imi pare totusi improbabil ca impiedicarea manipularii pietei BTC/USD se poate realiza de catre Mircea Popescu, precum imi pare improbabil ca se poate realiza in general de catre o enitate anumita, oricare ar fi ea, intr-o piata compusa din actori anonimi sau pseudonimi. Exista speranta probabil intemeiata ca pe masura ce piata BTC se dezvolta asemenea miscari vor deveni imposibile, mai ales pe masura ce diversii amatori cu pretentii de finantisti capabili sa arunce cu bani in scheme piramidale se mai desteapta / falimenteaza.
Oricit de usturator, exercitiul curent introduce niste recorduri, si-n proces demonstreaza destul de clar cam care sunt limitele expunerii si riscului pentru bondurile MPOE. In exercitiul pe Iulie, luna in care BTC a evoluat destul de liniar de la ~6.5 la ~9.5 (+46%) MPOE s-a descurcat bine, realizind venituri nete de ~870 BTC. In luna August, in care BTC a evoluat de la ~9.5 la ~15.5 (+63%) si apoi inapoi la ~10.5 (-32%) MPOE a inregistrat pagube egale cu aproximativ jumatate din capitalul la dispozitie (calculat dupa noile reguli, introduse in Aprilie), confirmind astfel evaluarile de la inceputul anului in ce priveste worst case scenario.
II. MPEx isi dovedeste valoarea cu ocazia acestui exercitiu - este prima oara de la achizitie cind produce venituri mai insemnate decit MPOE. Un numar semnificativ de noi utilizatori (mai ales sub aspectul activitatii, numarul utilizatorilor activi aproape dublindu-se in aceasta luna) precum si volumul de vinzari in crestere au adus sume insemnate in conturile actionarilor.
Avind in vedere ca principalul competitor a inregistrat un volum total de la relansarea in luna Ianuarie si pina astazi de ~240`000 BTC (aproximativ 30`000 pe luna) in timp ce MPEx a inregistrat tranzactii de peste 150`000 BTC doar in luna curenta putem trage concluzia ca MPEx detine la ora actuala o larga majoritate a pietei in instrumente financiare denominate in BTC.
E de asteptat ca avem aici un punct de inflexiune. Costurile mici de tranzactionare (0.2% doar pentru vinzari, 0% pentru cumparari), volumul semnificativ, insemnatele avantaje de securitate, viteza si disponibilitate, diverse alte avantaje (transferuri de valori gratis, margin etc) vor convinge probabil in lunile urmatoare cam toti investitorii cu un capital cit de cit mai rasarit decit pretul unei cafele sa-si deschida conturi daca nu au deja. Ca atare ne asteptam la venituri in crestere pentru viitor.
III. F.PURE.SYNTH se retrage datorita lipsei de interes pentru investitori. Am rascumparat toate actiunile emise, la ora actuala float-ul fiind zero.
IV. In Aprilie MPEx anunta ca accepta un market-maker pentru o optiune sau un contract futures pe dificultate. Terta parte selectata sa ocupe acest rol a oferit dupa specificatii optiuni (O.HASH.C10TH si O.HASH.P10TH) fara intrerupere de atunci pina astazi.
Din nefericire, o suita de tranzactii perdante in luna curenta pun respectiva parte in imposibilitatea de-a oferi pe mai departe aceasta optiune. Toti detinatorii au primit sumele cuvenite, dar incepind cu luna Septembrie O.HASH nu va mai fi oferit pe MPEx.
Suntem deschisi la discutii pentru a oferi acest instrument sau unul similar din nou, cu mentiunea ca valuarea lui corecta s-a dovedit in practica mai dificila decit poate parea teoretic.
V. Pentru a ingadui o mai corecta pretuire a riscurilor incepind cu luna Septembrie se ridica orice limita in ce priveste dobinzile cerute pentru finantarea MPOE prin bonduri (aceasta limita fusese 2% pe luna la lansare, fiind modificata apoi la 5% pentru Mai).
Mircea Popescu va continua sa completeze capitalul atras pina la nivelul necesar, in urmatoarele conditii : la o dobinda egala cu ultimul finantator, dar care nu poate fi mai mica decit MPBOR al lunii precedente. Astfel, daca MPOE necesita 10`000 BTC si se gasesc bonduri in valoare de 10`000 deja depuse, dobinda va fi egala cu oricit se cere pentru al 10`000-lea BTC, fie 10% sau 10`000%. Daca se gasesc bonduri depuse in valoare de doar 9`999 BTC, Mircea Popescu va oferi al 10`000-lea BTC, la aceeasi dobinda la care-i oferit al 9`999-lea, cu conditia ca aceasta sa nu fie mai mica decit MPBOR pe luna precedenta. In cazul in care aceasta este mai mica decit MPBOR pe luna precedenta, Mircea Popescu va oferi acel al 10`000-lea BTC la MPBOR pe luna precedenta.
Datorita acestei modificari toti investitorii beneficiaza de o perioada de gratie de doua zile (pina la 23:59:59 GMT pe 2 Septembrie curent) in care pot retrage sau adauga sume, care vor fi insa luate in considerare pe luna curenta (Septembrie).
———- In aceasta luna s-a inregistrat pentru prima oara un volum semnificativ de contracte tranzactionate intre terti, fara participarea MPOE. S-au tranzactionat astfel 10`628 O.BTCUSD.P190T si 17300 O.BTCUSD.P200N. Ca atare numarul total de contracte tranzactionate pe MPEx in luna August este de 103`576, un record absolut. [↩]
- Aproximativ o treime dintre inscrieri au urmat anuntarii IPO S.DICE. [↩]
- 5 BTC to the Open Transactions project, 5 BTC to Azelphur to encourage quote stream bot development. [↩]
Saturday, 1 September 2012
Overall trade 75`648 contracts, of which -12`312 +7`100 CALL ; -32`472 +23`764 PUT.
Revenue : 10`110.90263456 BTC, of which :
Expenditure : 14`651.324164215 BTC, of which :
Loss : -4`540.42152965 BTC
Revenue from sales fee : 309.03038447 BTC (154`515.19223830 BTC total trade volume)
Revenue from new accounts : 940 BTC
Revenue from consultancy and other services : 68.50 BTC
Expenditure (CSR) : 10 BTCiii
Profit : 1`307.53038447 BTC
Total shares : 1`000`000`000, of which :
Total dividend : 1`239.03038447 BTC.
Total capital : 9`333.58 BTC, of which
To cover : 4`540.42152965 BTC
Loss per BTC : 0.48646087.
Final bondholder list :
1HLWcPokYJixh6BsJH9JWa8MzDaGSLGDds, 48.54505081 BTC1NcrEUkRzqQaAEGabZKPTZhArzhJvYNGWh, 48.54505081 BTC1CkEwsGgZ9saNRmr5FnbtYJjnLBdgGpS7J, 48.54505081 BTCI. MPOE suffered what might very well be insider trading.
A good amount of CALLs were bought in July (over 1k), added to which a good amount bought since (over 2k) as well as a good amount of in the money PUTs were sold short (P180T, P190T, P200T, in total over 5k). The CALLs were executed shortly before the closure announcement of Bitcoin Savings and Trust. The PUTs were rebought on the market soon after the announcement, purchases continuing to the reversal of the position (the bot went from +5k to -5k on its book on those three MPSICs). The total losses resulting from these operations are roughly 4`500 BTC, which pretty much cover the month's poor results.
It's unclear to me what would be the appropiate steps, either to establish the truth on the matter (the suspicion might in fact be unwarranted) or to guard against similar occurences in the future. It seems to me improbable that the preventing of market manipulation can be accomplished by one Mircea Popescu, or even by any one entity in a market made out of pseudonymous or anonymous participants. There's the possibly reasonable hope that as the market matures such movements become impossible, especially as the various amateurs with pretention of "knowing finance" who are capable of throwing hundreds of thousands of BTCs into pyramid schemes smarten up or go bankrupt.
While painful, the current month is also replete with records, and rather plainly demonstrates the are the limits of exposure for MPOE financing bonds. In July, a month during which BTC went pretty much linearly from ~6.5 to ~9.5 (+46%) MPOE stayed above water, realising net profits of ~870 BTC. In August, during which BTC went from ~9.5 to ~15.5 (+63%) and then back to ~10.5 (-32%) MPOE suffered losses equal to approximately half its trading capital (as computed by the new rules, introduced back in April), thus confirming the evaluations made at the begining of the year with regards to the worst case scenario.
II. MPEx proved its value this month - it is the first time since it was acquired that it generates larger revenue than MPOE. A significant group of newly registered users (especially significant with regards to their activity, this metric nearly doubling the current month) as well as the sales volume increase brought significant sums to investors.
Considering that the main competitor managed a total volume since its launch (in January) of approximately 250`000 BTC (roughly 30k a month) while MPEx has had transactions well in excess of 150`000 BTC this month alone we can conclude that MPEx currently holds a large majority of the BTC denominated financial instruments market.
It's to be expected we find ourselves at a point of inflection. The low transaction costs, the significant volume, notable security, speed and availability advantages, various other strong points (free transfers, margin etc) are likely to convince pretty much all investors to open accounts in the coming months. As such we expect increasing revenue for the future.
III. F.PURE.SYNTH is withdrawn due to lack of interest shown by investors. All outstanding shares were rebought, the current float being 0.
IV. In April MPEx announced that it was looking for a market-maker for either options or futures based on difficulty. The third party selected to fulfill this role has offered options according to the specifications laid out then, without interruption until today.
Unfortunately, a string of losing transactions in the current month put that third party in the position of not being able to continue offering these options in the future. All holders have received their due BTC, but starting with September O.HASH will no longer be available on MPEx.
We are open to bringing this or a similar product back to the market, with the caveat that the correct valuation thereof has proven in practice to be more difficult than it seemed in theory.
V. To allow for a fairer pricing of risk, starting in September the limit on bonds interest is lifted (it was 2% at launch and then 5% starting in May).
Mircea Popescu will continue to supplement any capital shortfall, at an interest equal to the last bond but not less than the MPBOR for the previous month.
Due to this modification, all investors are given a two day grace period (until 23:59:59 GMT on the 2nd of September), during which they can withdraw or add new sums which will be considered for the current month (September).