Wikileaks - CCXXXVIII

37252 7/25/2005 13:57 05BUCHAREST1641 Embassy Bucharest UNCLASSIFIED 05BUCHAREST1084 This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001641

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH, JANE MESSENGER

E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, KDEM, ECON, RO, biographic information, poll, political assessment SUBJECT: LATEST ROMANIAN POLLS - PRESIDENT BASESCU STILL POPULAR, BUT NUMBERS DROPPING

REF: A. BUCHAREST 01378, B. BUCHAREST 01084

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

1. (SBU) Summary. Opinion polls conducted in July indicated a slight decline in support for both President Basescu and his center-right Liberal-Democratic (PNL-PD) Alliance. Support for Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu dropped more dramatically, coinciding with his recent vacillation over whether to resign and force new elections. At the same time, few Romanians want new elections, with roughly 60 percent opposing an early vote. Minister of Culture and Religion Mona Musca remains the most popular cabinet member, with the ministers of Justice and Foreign Affairs close behind. End Summary.

2. (U) Two recent opinion polls carried out by respected pollsters provide a snapshot of evolving political attitudes, coinciding with recent controversy surrounding the PM's vacillation whether to resign and force snap elections. The independent Center for Urban Center for Urban and Regional Studies (CURS) conducted an omnibus poll between July 10 and 17 among 1050 respondents over the age of 18, with a margin of error of 3 percent. The opposition center-left Social Democratic Party-leaning Marketing and Public Opinion Poll Institute (IMAS) conducted its poll between July 7 and 15 among 1252 respondents, with a margin of error of 3 percent.

CURS: A MAJORITY OPPOSES NEW ELECTIONS
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3. (U) The CURS poll, focusing on a range of political issues, produced the following results:

- Do you think early elections would be good or bad for Romania? - Good 29 percent - Bad 59 - Don't know, no response 12

- If early elections were to be held this Sunday, which party would you choose? (Of those respondents who expressed an opinion.) - PNL-PD 45 percent - PSD 30 - PRM (Great Romanian Party) 10 - UDMR (Ethnic Hungarian Party) 6 - PC (Conservative Party, former PUR) 3 - Others 6

- How satisfied are you with the following Cabinet Ministers? (Note: The titles/portfolios of each minister were not included in the question. End Note.)

(Very) Satisfied Not Satisfied Don't Know - Mona Musca 56 percent 29 15 Religion/Culture - Monica Macovei 39 35 26 Justice - Mihai Ungureanu 37 23 40 External Affairs - Gheorghe Flutur 29 33 38 Agriculture - Marko Bella 25 47 28 Minister of State - Codruts Seres 25 44 21 Minister of State - Ionut Popescu 24 39 37 Finance - Teodor Atansiu 23 29 48 Defense - Vasile Blaga 23 26 51 Interior and Administration - George Copos 19 32 49 Minister of State - Mircea Cinteza 15 49 36 Health - Sulfina Barbu 15 42 43 Environment - Mircea Miclea 14 31 55 Education - Gheorghe Dobre 14 29 57 Transport - Gheorghe Barbu 11 27 62 Labor - Gheorghe Seculici 10 24 66 Minister of State - Zsolt Nagy 10 20 70 Communications and IT - Mihai Voicu 9 18 73 Minister Delegate of Coordination - Bogdan Olteanu 8 20 72 Minister Delegate of Parliament Relations - Ene Dinga 6 18 76 EU Integration - Cristian David 5 19 76 Minister Delegate International Finances

4. (SBU) In a separate question, 57 percent of respondents believed that Presidential Counselor and former PNL leader Teodor Stolojan would be the best Prime Minister, as opposed to 20 percent who favored incumbent Calin Popescu-Tariceanu.

IMAS: PNL-PD SUPPORT DECLINING
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5. (U) The IMAS poll provides an indication of relative trends during the first seven months of PNL-PD government. Results are compared to responses to the same question asked in January, March, June, and July 2005. Most striking is the significant drop in support for PM Tariceanu, with similar erosion for Basescu.

- Which party would you vote for if elections were to be held this Sunday? Jan 2005 March June July PNL-PD 66 percent 54 55 47 PSD 19 28 23 32 PRM 7 9 10 12 UDMR 5 5 6 5 Others 3 5 5 4

- How much confidence do you have in the following public figures? Jan 2005 March June July Traian Basescu 73 percent 58 58 50 Mircea Geoana 44 40 41 38 C. Tariceanu 65 48 42 34 Adrian Nastase 27 31 26 30 Emil Boc 39 27 26 27 C. Vadim Tudor 21 19 17 22 Marko Bela 15 11 15 11 Cozmin Gusa - - 11 10 Dan Voiculescu 9 8 6 7

6. (SBU) Comment: Both polls were completed before PM Tariceanu's July 19 announcement that he would not resign. Given the general public disapproval of his vacillation before that announcement and his initial lack of focus on flood relief, his standing would likely be lower in polling conducted today. Interestingly, the two most popular cabinet members were both women, perhaps positively indicating a hairline crack in Romania's historic "glass ceiling" that has impeded women political figures from moving forward in the past. End Comment.

7. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest.

TAPLIN