Sa ne jucam de-a investitiile-n bitcoini.
If you don't understand Romanian, there's an English version here.
La ora actuala nu exista un mod de-a investii bitcoini. Aceasta imprejurare imi pare mie (alaturi de dificultatile in a cumpara bitcoini pe care le intimpina Ion Intimplatorul, posesor de cont in banca/carte de credit/cont paypal) cam cea mai importanta frina in calea dezvoltarii respectivei idei.
Intrucit MPOEii a trecut in mare de dificultatile inceputului ma aflu in pozitia foarte placuta de-a putea face ceva pe aceasta tema. Ca atare, incepind de chiar acum veti putea cumpara actiuni si bonduri MPOE, sau cu alte cuvinte realiza investitii in sensul propriu. Am sa explic detaliile mai jos, dar intii voi prezenta pe scurt rezultatele financiare ale MPOE pe ultimele sase luni :
August 2011 :
- Total 40 contracte, din care 20 CALL, 20 PUT.
Incasari : 1.760952980 BTC.
Cheltuieli : 4.621052620 BTC , din care :
Rezultat net : - 2.860099640 BTC
Septembrie 2011 :
-
Total 110 contracte, din care 80 CALL, 30 PUT.
- plati datorate, 0.20217915 BTC
- cheltuieli cu capitalul 80 BTC + 31.25 BTCv × 2% = 2.225 BTC
Incasari : 16.188713100 BTC.
Cheltuieli : 2.427179150 BTC, din care :
Rezultat net : 13.761533950 BTC
Octombrie 2011 :
-
Total 1`160 contracte, din care 1`110 CALL, 50 PUT.
- plati datorate, 27.242099070 BTC
- cheltuieli cu capitalul 1100 BTC + 52.17 BTCvi × 2% = 23.0434 BTC
Incasari : 94.049879470 BTC.
Cheltuieli : 50.285499070 BTC, din care :
Rezultat net : 43.764380400 BTC
Noiembrie 2011 :
-
Total 1`014 contracte, din care 485 CALL, 529 PUT.
- plati datorate, 46.154494050 BTC
- cheltuieli cu capitalul 485 BTC + 440 BTCvii × 2% = 18.5 BTC
Incasari : 262.208804500 BTC.
Cheltuieli : 64.654494050 BTC, din care :
Rezultat net : 197.554310450 BTC
Decembrie 2011 :
-
Total 5`530 contracte, din care 2`240 CALL, 3`290 PUT.
- plati datorate, 138.559309400 BTC
- cheltuieli cu capitalul 2240 BTC + 3535.71 BTCviii × 2% = 115.514200000 BTC
Incasari : 141.516650950 BTC.
Cheltuieli : 254.073509400 BTC, din care :
Rezultat net : - 112.556858450 BTC
Ianuarie 2012 :
-
Total 128 contracte, din care 15 CALL, 113 PUT.
- plati datorate, 0.092802710 BTC
- cheltuieli cu capitalul 15 BTC + 132.89 BTCix × 2% = 2.957800000 BTC
Incasari : 3.770860440 BTC.
Cheltuieli : 3.050602710 BTC, din care :
Rezultat net : 0.720257730 BTC
Precum se vede MPOE e per total profitabila, realizind un profit total net de 140.383524440 BTC in sase luni pe baza exploatarii unui capital total de 8`172 BTC-luni (in medie 1`362 BTC pe luna).
Si-acum, sa vedem ce-o fi si cu investitiile astea.
I. Actiuni.x Profiturile realizate in fiecare luna de catre MPOE se impart unui numar de un miliard (1`000`000`000) de actiuni fara valoare nominala si fara drept de vot. Detinatorii lor nu sunt responsabili pentru eventualele pagube realizate din exploatarea MPOE, dar au dreptul sa incaseze in fiecare lunaxi o fractie din profitul realizat (daca el exista) egala cu procentul din actiunile totale detinute.
La ora actuala eu sunt proprietarul intregului calup de un miliard de actiuni (cum ar fi pina la urma de asteptat, dat fiind ca-i sandramaua mea). Eu scot insa la vinzare, prin subscriptie publica, un pachet de un milion de actiuni, reprezentind 1‰ din numarul total de actiuni.
Cum functioneaza subscriptia publica ? Uite asa : Incepind de acum si pina Vineri, 1 Martie 2012, ora 23:59:59 GMT oricine este interesat de-a intra in posesia unei cantitati de actiuni va trimite un email pe adresa mea, care va contine neaparat adresa la care va primi el bitcoinii in fiecare luna si cantitatea exacta de bitcoini pe care urmeaza s-o subscrie, dupa care va trimite de indata suma respectiva pe adresa 1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR avind mare grija ca zecimalele din pozitiile 6, 7 si 8 sa fie 9. Deci, trimitind 100.00000999 sau 12.345678999 BTC ati subscris cite 100 respectiv 12 BTC (am rotunjit din lene). La finalul subscriptiei publice, deci cindva in cursul zilei de 2 Martie eu voi aduna toate sumele trimise, voi calcula valoarea per actiune rezultataxii si respectiv numarul de actiuni care revine fiecarui subscriitorxiii.
Eu voi mentine un tabel cu lista tuturor proprietarilor de actiuni, si-n fiecare luna le voi trimite sumele corespunzatoare. Actiunile pot fi de asemenea tranzactionate, in sensul ca daca primesc un email de la adresa de email care-a anuntat initial subscriptiaxiv cerind ca o parte sau toate actiunile sa fie alocate unei noi combinatii email-adresa BTC ma voi conforma. Pentru a evita spam-ul fiecare astfel de modificare se va taxa cu o suma de bitcoinixv care va va fi comunicata printr-un raspuns la email (atentie la adresele de pe yahoo si alti provideri dubiosi). Pentru aceleasui motive nu se accepta subscriptii sub 0.1 BTC.
Si iata un mod relativ simplu de-a va dedulci la bunatatile fascinantei lumi a finantelor inalte. Dar stati, ca n-am terminat!
II. Bonduri. MPOE nu detine nici un fel de capital propriu, ci se constituie exclusiv din algoritmul care calculeaza preturile optiunilor si alti algoritmi si manopere necesare bunei functionari a intregului proces. In cursul functionarii sale normale, MPOE imprumuta capitalurile necesare acoperirii completexvi a riscurilor pe care le asuma.
La ora actuala eu sunt (in virtutea inertiei, cum ar veni) singurul care imprumuta MPOE cu capitalul de care are nevoie, in baza urmatoarei intelegeri : primesc un premium de 2% din capitalul pus la dispozitie in fiecare luna (calculat ca suma dintre numarul contractelor CALL si suma produselor dintre numarul de contracte PUT la fiecare strike si strike-ul respectiv impartita la valoarea cea mai mica a BTC in luna respectiva, rotunjita la doua cifre), dar acopar orice eventuale pierderi.
Aceasta intelegere este acum deschisa oricarui utilizator! Pentru a finanta MPOE va revine sa trimiteti un email pe adresa mea, care va contine neaparat a) adresa de bitcoin la care veti primi capitalul inapoi cind e cazul precum si premiumul lunar si b) valoarea exacta a acestuia (un numar real mai mare decit 0 si mai mic decit 2), dupa care veti trimite de indata suma respectiva pe adresa 1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR avind mare grija ca zecimalele din pozitiile 6, 7 si 8 sa fie 8.
La sfirsitul fiecarei luni eu voi ordona lista crescator dupa premiumul cerut de fiecare si voi trage linie sub (sau prin) oferta care satisface nevoile de creditare ale lunii respective, urmind ca toti cei deasupra liniei sa primeasca dobinda ultima acceptata (un sistem foarte asemanator cu vinzarile de bonuri de tezaur ale statelor, de exemplu).
Ca sa ne intelegem cu un exemplu, sa zicem ca :
- A trimite 100 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.2,
- B trimite 1`000 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.5,
- C trimite 500 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.65,
- D trimite 5`000 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.9.
Daca acestea se intimpla in luna Octombrie 2011, cind nevoile totale de finantare au fost de 1152.17 BTC, linia s-ar trage prin C, si finantatorii lunii respective ar fi :
- A, cu 100 BTC la 1.65%,
- B cu 1000 BTC la 1.65% si
- C cu 52.17 BTC la 1.65%.
Daca in schimb aceleasi se intimplau in luna Decembrie 2011, cind nevoie de finantare au fost de 5775.71 BTC, linia s-ar fi tras prin D, si finantatorii lunii respective ar fi fost :
- A, cu 100 BTC la 1.9%,
- B cu 1000 BTC la 1.9% si
- C cu 500 BTC la 1.9%.
- D cu 4175.71 BTC la 1.9%.
Evident ca in toate cazurile in care finantarile nu acopera necesarul lunii eu voi completa cit este nevoie, la rata fixa de 2%.
Desi finantatorii nu primesc nici o parte din profitul realizat de MPOE, finantarea nu este lipsita de riscuri, pentru ca ei raspund cu capitalul depus de eventualele pierderi, care li se aloca proportional. Luind tot exemplul lunii Decembrie 2011, cind rezultatele nete au fost - 112.556858450 BTC, aceasta suma se imparte la capitalul total (5775.71) rezultind o pierdere de 1.9487969%xvii. Asta inseamna ca la inceputul lunii Ianuarie capitalurile celor patru ar arata precum urmeaza :
- A are 98.051203100 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.2,
- B trimite 980.51203100 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.5,
- C trimite 490.256015500 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.65,
- D trimite 4918.623892967 BTC pentru care doreste un premium de 1.9.
Astfel toti finantatorii au pierdut per total o mica suma de BTC, si anume A 0.049 BTC, B 0.49BTC etc. In luna Octombrie, cind MPOE a realizat profit fiecare finantator si-ar fi primit pur si simplu premiumul cuvenit, fara a mai suferi pierderi din capital.
E important de notat ca orice sume trimise pentru a participa la finantare se vor lua in considerare exclusiv pentru luni intregi (deci, daca trimiteti pe 2 sau 20 Martie 2012 nu veti fi eligibil pentru a participa la finantarea lunii Martie, ci doar a lunii Aprilie). Proprietarii pot solicita retragerea sumelor depuse (trimitind un email de pe aceeasi adresa de pe care au anuntat initial depunerea), dar nu vor fi eliberate decit la finalul lunii curente, si numai dupa ce vor fi raspuns pentru orice pagube corespunzind ei. Pentru a limita efortul contabi, nu se primesc investitii sub 50 BTC. Investitiile care se depreciaza sub acest nivel minim vor fi returnate automat proprietarilor.
Lista cu sumele si premiumurile corespunzatoare fiecareia va fi disponibila pe o pagina speciala, fiind considerata informatie publica.
———- Cuvintul asta e important. Nu-i egal cu a cheltui, nich chiar daca vorbim de "cheltuieli capabile de-a aduce in principiu cistiguri in viitor". Spre exemplu banii cheltuiti la Casino ar putea aduce cistiguri in viitor, da' asta nu inseamna ca-s investitii. [↩]
- Mircea Popescu's Options Emporium :) [↩]
- A se vedea explicatia din cadrul discutiei despre bonduri. [↩]
- 2 × 10 × 13 / 6.5 = 40 [↩]
- 30 × 5 / 4.8 = 31.25 [↩]
- (30 × 3 + 20 × 1.5) / 2.3 = 52.17 [↩]
- (309 × 2 + 200 × 1.5 + 20 × 2.5) / 2.2 = 440 [↩]
- (2×450 + 2.5×40+3×1800+3.5×1000) / 2.8 = 3535.71 [↩]
- (60 × 4 + 53 × 5) / 3.8 = 3535.71 [↩]
- Ambele concepte utilizate in aceasta discutie, "actiuni" si respectiv "bonduri" se bazeaza logic pe corespondentele lor din lumea reala dar nu functioneaza exact la fel. E foarte important sa cititi cu atentie si sa intelegeti in profunzime specificatiile functionarii lor concrete asa cum sunt descrise aici, si e foarte periculos sa va bazati pe intelegeri teoretice din experienta dvs, dat fiind ca acestea din urma pot sa aiba sau pot sa nu aiba vre-o legatura cu obiectele despre care discutam noi, indiferent de coincidenta de nume. [↩]
- Inchiderea lunii se petrece pe ultima Vineri a lunii respective, platile se vor face ca si-n cazul executiilor pina la sfirsitul zilei de Luni urmatoare. [↩]
- In exemplul nostru : (100.00000999 + 12.345678999) ÷ 1000000 = 0.000112346 BTC per actiune [↩]
- In exemplul nostru 100.00000999 ÷ 0.000112346 = 890`107 actiuni primului si 12.345678999 ÷ 0.000112346 = 109`889 celui de-al doilea. Intrucit 890`107 + 109`889 vine de-abia 999`996 un numar de patru actiuni nu se impart, ci imi revin mie sub titlul de jaf si jacuiala. [↩]
- Partea asta este foarte importanta. Nu ma intereseaza daca folositi adrese anonime sau ce faceti, va priveste, da' aveti grija cum va securizati adresa respectiva pentru ca-i singurul mod in care va identific. [↩]
- Ceva intre un sfert si jumatate de BTC, variabil si dupa evolutia pietei. [↩]
- Prin acoperire completa intelegem urmatoarea situatie : o cantitate de BTC egala cu numarul total de contracte CALL deschise, si o cantitate de dolari egala cu numarul de contracte PUT inmultite cu strike-ul lor. In baza acestor rezerve MPOE nu poate ajunge niciodata in incapacitate de plata : daca pretul BTC ajunge infinit executiile se pot in totalitate satisface din bitcoinii disponibili, iar daca pretul ajunge zero executiile se pot in totalitate satisface din dolarii disponibil. [↩]
- N-am mai luat in considerare faptul ca s-a socotit premium 2% nu 1.9%, faceti abstractie. [↩]
Monday, 20 February 2012
In the grand tradition of European multiculturalism, comments in any and all languages are welcome.
Currently no way of investing1 bitcoins exists. This state of affairs seems to me (together with the difficulties John Q. Random faces trying to buy bitcoins with his cc/pp) the foremost drag on the growth of the bitcoin idea.
Seeing as MPOE has by and large come out of beta, I find myself in the most delightful position of being able to do something about it. As such, starting right now, you will be able to purchase stocks in MPOE and MPOE bonds, or in other words invest bitcoins in the proper sense. I will explain the details below, but first, a run-down of the financial results of MPOE for the past six months:
August 2011:
Total 40 contracts, 20 CALL, 20 PUT.
Revenue: 1.760952980 BTC.
Expenses: 4.621052620 BTC, of which:
Net Profit / Loss: - 2.860099640 BTC
September 2011:
Total 110 contracts, 80 CALL, 30 PUT.
Revenue: 16.188713100 BTC.
Expenses: 2.427179150 BTC, of which:
Net Profit / Loss: 13.761533950 BTC
October 2011:
Total 1`160 contracts, 1`110 CALL, 50 PUT.
Revenue: 94.049879470 BTC.
Expenses: 50.285499070 BTC, of which:
Net Profit / Loss: 43.764380400 BTC
November 2011:
Total 1`014 contracts, 485 CALL, 529 PUT.
Revenue: 262.208804500 BTC.
Expenses: 64.654494050 BTC, of which:
Net Profit / Loss: 197.554310450 BTC
December 2011:
Total 5`530 contracts, 2`240 CALL, 3`290 PUT.
Revenue: 141.516650950 BTC.
Expenses: 254.073509400 BTC, of which:
Net Profit / Loss: - 112.556858450 BTC
January 2012:
Total 128 contracts, 15 CALL, 113 PUT.
Revenue: 3.770860440 BTC.
Expenses: 3.050602710 BTC, of which:
Net Profit / Loss: 0.720257730 BTC
As you can see, MPOE is overall profitable, having realised 140.383524440 BTC in net profits over six months on the basis of 8`172 BTC-months in capital (on the average 1`362 BTC per month).
And now, let's see about these investments.
I. Stocks.3 The profit realised every month by MPOE is divided to a total one billion (1`000`000`000) shares with no nominal value and no voting rights. Their owner(s) are not responsible for any net loss resulting from MPOE activity, but are entitled to a fraction of the net profit of each month equal to the fraction of total stocks they hold. Currently, I own the entire block of one billion stocks (as you'd expect, seeing how it's my doohickey). I will however offer for public subscription a block of one million stocks, representing 1‰ of the total outstanding shares.
How will this public subscription work? Like this: starting right now and until Friday, the 1st of March 2012, 23:59:59 GMT, any party interested in acquiring a block of shares will send me an email, which will necessarily include the bitcoin address at which they will be receiving monthly profits and the exact amount of BTC they're about to subscribe, after which they will immediately send the BTC to the address 1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR, making sure that the 6th, 7th and 8th decimals are all 9. So, by sending 100.00000999 or 12.345678999 BTC, you have subscribed roughly 100 or 12 BTC. At the end of the subscription period, so sometime on the 2nd of March, I will add up all the sums sent, calculate the per stock value (in our example (100.00000999 + 12.345678999) ÷ 1000000 = 0.000112346 BTC per) and respectively the amt of stocks for each subscriber (in our example 100.00000999 ÷ 0.000112346 = 890`107 stocks for the first and 12.345678999 ÷ 0.000112346 = 109`889 stocks for the second. Since 890`107 + 109`889 is merely 999`996 a number of 4 stocks will not be divided, but remain with me as lawful loot and plunder).
I will keep a list of all stocks owners, and at every month's end will send the corresponding amounts over to their addresses. Stocks can also be transferred, which is to mean that if I were to receive an email from the address that originally announced the subscription requiring that a part or all of the associated stocks be transferred to a new email-BTC address combo, I will update the records. In order to control spam, each such transaction will be taxed a BTC amount (something between a quarter and half a BTC say, function of what the prices are too). The tax due will be communicated through an email response (make sure you do get my email). For the same reasons, each subscription must be in excess of 0.1 BTC.
And that's a relatively simple way to taste the sweet fruit of the fascinating realm of high finance. But wait, for we're not done yet!
II. Bonds. MPOE holds absolutely no capital of its own, being exclusively composed of the algorithm that prices options and other algorithms and general craftiness required for the entire thing to function. During its normal operation, MPOE borrows capital needed for complete coverage of all risks it undertakes (by which we mean an amount of BTC equal to the total number of open CALLs plus a quantity of USD equal to the sum of all puts multiplied by their respective strikes. Based on this reserve, MPOE can never end up unable to deliver BTC it owes, regardless of whether the BTC price reaches infinity or zero).
Currently I am (by virtue of inertia mostly) the only lender of MPOE, on the basis of the following agreement: for a 2% premium on any capital lent (calculated as above), I will eat any losses that may arise.
This deal is now open to anyone! In order to finance MPOE, you have to send an email which will mandatorily contain: a) the bitcoin address where you will receive your capital back when it's time plus your monthly premium, b) the exact value of your desired premium (a real number higher than 0 and lower than 2), and c) the exact amount you will be investing. After sending the email, send the money over immediately at the usual bitcoin address (1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR). Make sure that the 6th, 7th and 8th decimals are all 8 (so in order to invest 1000 BTC send 1000.00000888).
At the end of each month, I will order the list of deposited investments ascendingly by the premium, and draw a line under (or through) the offer which fills the capital needs of the respective month. All the people above the line will receive the last accepted premium (a system much like the one used for treasury bonds sales). So as to understand better, an example:
Were this to happen in October 2011, when the total financing needs were 1152.17 BTC, the line would be drawn through C, and the month's financiers would be:
Were the same to happen in December 2011, when the financing needs were 5775.71 BTC, the line would be drawn through D, and the month's financiers would be:
Obviously, in all cases when the financiers do not cover the month's needs, I will fill in the remainder at the fixed rate of 2%.
Although the financiers do not receive any part of profits made by MPOE, their financing is not without risk, because their capital will be used to answer any shortfalls, proportionally. Taking as an example again the month of December 2011, when the net results were -112.556858450 BTC, this sum would then have been divided by the total capital (5775.71) resulting in a loss of 1.9487969% (1.9487969 bitcoin cents to the bitcoin). This means that going into January 2012, the capital of each would be as follows:
Thus each financier lost a small amount of BTC; A 0.049 BTC, B 0.49BTC etc. In October, when MPOE made a profit, each financier would have simply received his due premium, without any capital losses.
It is important to bear in mind that any sums sent for participating in financing will only be considered for whole months (so if you send on the 2nd or 20th of March 2012, you will not be eligible to participate in the financing of March; only April and onwards). The owners can request the withdrawal of their investments (by sending an email from the same address as the one that announced their deposit), which will be processed at the end of the month, and only after any relevant losses (if applicable) have been deducted. Investments under
10050 BTC are not accepted due to clerical reasons. Any bonds depreciated below this level will be automatically returned to the respective investors.The list of sums invested and the corresponding premiums will be available on a special page, as public information.
---------
1 This word is important. It does not equal "expend," even if we're talking about expenses that are theoretically able to bring future gains. For instance, money spent at the craps table could yield future gains but that still doesn't make them an investment.
2 See the explanations given in the Bonds section.
3 Both "stocks" and "bonds" as used in this discussion are logically derived from the same root as their everyday equivalents, but do not function exactly alike. It is very important to read carefully and fully grasp the specifications of their working as described here, and it is very dangerous to rely on the theory that you understand based on your general experience with other stocks or bonds.
Wednesday, 22 February 2012
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64962
Wednesday, 22 February 2012
Hehe cool.
Friday, 24 February 2012
{mircea_popescu} so how does it look ?
{random_cat} well... it looks interesting; i can say that i don't like at all the structure of your 'bonds'
{mircea_popescu} i did have some complaints on the matter, people don't seem to digest well the fact somebody tells the truth about what bonds are.
{random_cat} maybe if you just called them something else :)
{mircea_popescu} you know, this is what happens irl to bonds ? everybody lies about it something fierce, but this is the real deal.
{random_cat} oh... but my issue is that the 'stocks' seem to be senior to the 'bonds'. that is all.... nothing against either particular gamble.
{mircea_popescu} how so ? you put 1000 btc into a stock you may break even ever again or never again. you put 1000 btc into stocks you're very unlikely to lose anything.
{random_cat} because as i read it, you are creating MPOE anew each month
{mircea_popescu} how so ?
* mircea_popescu suspects maybe the thing isn't clearly enough written
{random_cat} because the structure of the 'bond' means the bondholder may not be made whole ever again (as i read it)... that is the bonds terminate monthly... but the stock continues to exist! so if that is true.... then the 'bond' holders experience default, but the stock continues
{mircea_popescu} the bond does not terminate ? let me run down through the intended thing here k ?
{random_cat} sure
{mircea_popescu} 1. stocks. you put some money in. all the total is pooled and shares are alloted. so if you put 3 btc and nobody else puts more you get 1mn shares this month but if someone else puts 7 btc extra you only get 300`000 shares. these will yield you a percentage of profit forever.
{random_cat} yeah.. let's keep it simple... let's say i buy all the shares... and someone else buys all the bonds
{mircea_popescu} ok. how much do you pay for all the shares ? cause price of shares isn't actually known.
{random_cat} so... the month ends... and there was profit or not. let's say i pay 100 btc
{mircea_popescu} aha ok. (i think you utterly undervalue the share price, seeing how i'm only selling 1mn out of 1bn this month and i expect tens of btcs deposited)
{random_cat} what are the month's capital requirements?
{mircea_popescu} say they're 500 btc
{random_cat} ok... let's say someone buys 100 btc of bonds
{mircea_popescu} ok
{random_cat} so... now there's 200 btc in play... and you end up lending the other 300
{mircea_popescu} no. there's 100 lent and i lend the other 400
{random_cat} you put in 400? ok
{mircea_popescu} yea
{random_cat} so... there's 600 in play
{mircea_popescu} what do you mean by "in play" ? the 100 you pay to get the stocks aren't the mpoe's.
{random_cat} working capital
{mircea_popescu} no. 500 is the working capital.
{random_cat} meh? the balance sheet has debt and equity of 600... in this kind of operation, let's not quibble about where exactly it's accounted... no one's seen your accounting system ;)
{mircea_popescu} lol mk, but i mp are selling my stocks in mpoe. but anyway. go ahead.
{random_cat} so... the month ends... and... there's a loss for the month, there's a profit between 0 and 500, or there's a profit greater than 500
{mircea_popescu} ok. 1st case : stocks get nothing, bond holder gets 2 btc in cash and is left with a capital of 100 * loss factor. 2nd and 3rd case : stocks get profit / float, bond gets 2 btc in cash and is left with 100 btc for next month
{random_cat} as i read the 'prospectus' in the first two cases the bondholders get screwed, but the stock holder has the possibility of recovery later
{mircea_popescu} either it doesn't say that or i didn't write what i meant.
{random_cat} well... my read is that the 'stock' is a lot like what i would think of as a preferred stock... with the dividend set up as profit sharing
{mircea_popescu} i would say so. i think the only missing bit is that bond capital just keeps on keeping on. i mean you can ask for it to be sent back, but otherwise you send it once and it's there forever. kinda how a bond works.
{random_cat} the bond looks to me like a pure gamble on the profitability in a particular month... with a pretty strong possibility of loss in any particular month... but gameable (since everyone has access to changing the capital requirements)
{mircea_popescu} how would the loss occur tho ? if you look at the six months on record (well, august doesn't really count, it was pretty much you and me fiddling with the alpha of it as you recall) the bonds lost exactly once, and that once was not even actually a loss. i'm just saying you need some particularly insano market conditions for the bonds to actually lose. otherwise, 2% a month comes to 30ish a year for a reason. you do the same as if you bought CD tranches say.
{random_cat} yeah... i'm going to assume you run a reasonable book... and that catastrophic losses are unlikely. ok... let's say that by the end of november bondholders put up 5700 btc and for some odd reason the more attractive looking stocks had only 100 btc worth of interest. stocks get nothing for the month, and the bond holders are not made whole.
{mircea_popescu} what is the loss ? if the exchange loses say 100 btc the bondholders pretty much lose out their month's interest.
{random_cat} well... from what you just said earlier it looks as if you intend to pay interest before principal... (correct me if wrong so i avoid some needless arithmetic)
{mircea_popescu} interest first yes.
{random_cat} so from december we have a 12.5 (and change) btc shortfall from that month's stock subscription for covering the 112.5 btc loss; we also have a 75.71 btc shortfall on the bonds; so mp gets his 75.71*.02 btc and the other bondholders get their 5700*x btc from a pool of 5875.71 btc
{mircea_popescu} uh.
{random_cat} x has to be pretty small for that to leave 5775.71 btc
{mircea_popescu} again. stock subscriptions do not go into this
{random_cat} that just makes matters worse
{mircea_popescu} no. looky : in december we have net receipts 141.516650950 BTC payments 138.559309400 BTC. that leaves 3 ish btc to be split. the bondholders get it all. if there was more than what the bondholders got, it'd have been split up to shareholders, as for instance in november : receipts 262.208804500 BTC, payments 46.154494050 BTC. this leaves a 216 btc to be split up. bondholders get (with a 2% rate) 18.5 BTC over their less than 1k capital. the remainder is split up to shareholders.
{random_cat} ahh.. ahh... i was misreading the capital expenses
{mircea_popescu} yeh. the bond interest goes in there accting wise, but otherwise, it's ... you know, bondholder's payout. so really, to possibly better translate this in financial english : there's a preferred class A which has fixed dividend and a nominal value of 1 BTC and there's a preferred class B which gets remainders and has no nominal value. called bonds and stocks respectively for the hell of it.
{random_cat} will think a bit more about it. you're showing a pretty small data set (naturally) but the 'bond' feels weird to me because of its short duration and high probability of default... here's what i think. the most important element missing from the description of the offerings is the lack of explicit indication that the claims of the 'bond' holders is senior to the 'stock' holders. there are a couple vague terms in the stock description that should be cleaned up (imo). you say "I will keep a list of all stocks owners, and at every month's end will send the corresponding amounts over to their addresses" and this is a good place to make explicit the seniority of the 'bond' over the 'stock'
{mircea_popescu} you'd say the fact that bond expenses are put in the expense acct prominently doesn't carry this point ? i mean, stocks get the profit divided. profit is receipts-expenses. bond expenses qualify, ergo, senior.
{random_cat} the lack of explicit transfer fees is also an issue.... it sounds as if you want to make them nominal... but it's not clear
{mircea_popescu} (something between a quarter and half a BTC say, function of what the prices are too) no good ?
{random_cat} no... it doesn't carry the point, because (as i said before) your accounting method is not clear (at least to me)
{mircea_popescu} so maybe then the unclearity of accting is a bigger problem that also needs clarifying ?
{random_cat} right... i think that's too vague... make it specific... some percentage of the value of a btc perhaps... with a minimum
{mircea_popescu} well... 25% to 50%. hm.
{random_cat} maybe (on the accting); there are some issues here because i am mostly familiar with us accounting... and i know that europeans tend to a more rigid standard... perhaps what you've put down jumps out for people accustomed to looking at urop co's docs, but for me it does not adhere to a well known standard (I haven't done any fundamental analysis of european firms in years)
{mircea_popescu} it doesn't adhere too closely to eu standards either really. i think it'd look most familiar to people in the 1700s
{random_cat} ok... i take your point on the 25% to 50%, but you ADD 'function of the prices too'
{mircea_popescu} well one day the btc will be 100$. i won't in good conscience charge 50 dollars for a transfer. but I guess that's as opaque as mud.
{random_cat} yes... that is my point. something a bit more concrete (or clear!) about the transfer price is in order
{mircea_popescu} should it be (something between a quarter and half a BTC say, at most) ?
{random_cat} that, i think, conveys the idea that it's spam eliminating... but do consider the problem that you are (potentially) issuing a very large number of shares (with no control over even further issuance ;)
{mircea_popescu} what do you mean ?
{random_cat} well... you've stated 1G shares... but there's nothing to prevent you from issuing another class not to mention the possibility of some voting shares at some point.
{mircea_popescu} i won't issue another class. there's no space anyway. but i will issue a single golden share, with voting rights, if/when i sell the thing. not for the near future. might be in a bundle with 50.x% of the current ones, depending.
{random_cat} i'm not sure why you say "there's no space" when there's no limit to the issuance of shares... it's not like you've run up against a real limit of divisibility.
{mircea_popescu} if i said once there's 1G shares, and i'm selling my own, when i run out of the 1G I run out. i don't intend to dilute, as it makes no sense. the MPOE has no and needs no capital. besides i can't as a person issue new shares of a third party. only the third party can issue more shares, and these shares would then be paid into its own account.
{random_cat} well... obviously if/when you sell a golden share that no longer holds
{mircea_popescu} i don't intend to sell it to irresponsible people. ideally i will sell it to a community vehicle, when and if that exists.
{random_cat} haha! there's plenty in finance that makes no sense :D
{mircea_popescu} :p i could conceivably do a split, if there's real need (share price too high) but a split isn't really new issuance except in the most nominalist of approaches.
{random_cat} ok... well.. i had a couple other issues to point out, but they aren't technical.... they only depend on your ethics... although i do still harbor some small concern that there is a 'game' to be had by fiddling with the market after taking a position, and perhaps part of that has to do with my interest in your avoiding glbse
{mircea_popescu} obviously there's this entire "o, what if one day you meet a french woman and run off to guyana/have a stroke/ascend to heaven". well.. these problems exist for anything and everything bitcoin related. people try to shove them under carpet, but i think the correct approach is to confront them like a man. at least that's been my philosophy so far on the subject.
{random_cat} although instead of a split you might better do something analogous to the brk.a brk.b relationship. i agree that confronting them is proper.
{mircea_popescu} how do you mean ? and i'm not on glbse because they have a bunch of junk there i don't want to associate with. have you seen their companies page ? so basically so far i'm roughing it and pestering nano to make a bloody stock exchange.
{random_cat} i mean that rather than a split, issue another class with one way convertibility and greater resolution. yes... i have... the whole thing is a big mess in many ways... and i don't happen to know any of the personalties behind it...
{mircea_popescu} i can't issue a new class really seeing how i don't have what to give it.
{random_cat} oh... that's the beauty: instead of issuing 1M of stock, you issue 1B of stock. prime convertible at a ratio of 1K:1
{mircea_popescu} why not just do a 1K to 1 split of all stock ?
{random_cat} well... because it might be a hassle to deal with the sub satoshi :|
{mircea_popescu} lol. you're trying to complificate my thing. i tell you, if need be i might split but that's pretty much all. btw, do you have any issue with me posting selections of this as a comment there ? so people might benefit in general?
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Ori nu pricep eu ceva, ori e o simplificare in exemplul acela al lunii decembrie pentru finantatori. Exemplul considera acum pierderile totale calculate practic cu 2% rata fixa aplicata la cheltuielile cu capitalul. Daca insa presupunem finantatorii din exemplu, calculul se face cu 1.9%, nu? Si in general, daca finantarile nu acopera necesarul unei luni, se face calculul cheltuielilor practic cu cele doua rate (cat rezulta pt finantatori, respectiv 2% pentru ce mai adaugi tu)?
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Pfff, abia acum am vazut nota de subsol, pardon.
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
E o simplificare in exemplul lunii Decembrie. S-o scriem corect :
Decembrie 2011 :
Total 5`530 contracte, din care 2`240 CALL, 3`290 PUT.
Incasari : 141.516650950 BTC.
Cheltuieli : 248.297799400 BTC, din care :
plati datorate, 138.559309400 BTC
cheltuieli cu capitalul 2240 BTC + 3535.71 BTC × 1.9% = 109.73849000 BTC
Rezultat net : - 106.781148450 BTC
finantatorii :
A, cu 100 BTC la 1.9%,
B cu 1000 BTC la 1.9% si
C cu 500 BTC la 1.9%.
D cu 4175.71 BTC la 1.9%.
Pierdere de 0.018487969 per BTC,
A primeste 1,9 BTC si ramine cu 98,15120310 BTC (deci are in total 100,0512031 BTC, din care 1,9 in cash si 98,15120310 in depozit)
B primeste 19 BTC si ramine cu 981,51203100 BTC (deci are in total 1000,512031 BTC, din care 19 in cash si 981,51203100 in depozit)
C primeste 9,5 BTC si ramine cu 490,75601550 BTC (deci are in total 500,25601550 BTC)
etc.
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Intre timp am recitit discutia cu random_cat si in fapt de acolo s-au mai lamurit din lucruri. Imi pare ca merita pus exemplul asta fara simplificare pentru ca face evidenta si separarea intre plata premiumului respectiv si calculul pierderilor care din ceva motiv nu-i foarte clara in articol.
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Nu vreau sa mai modific articolul odata publicat, da' ramine oricum aici discutia pentru posteritate.
N-am idee de ce mi-a iesit atit de obscur, multa lume s-a caznit si doua zile sa isi deseneze ce vrea textul de la viata.
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
{brendio_} I have a question about your MPOE stock/bond offering
{mircea_popescu} shoot
{brendio_} With the bonds, I don't get how you know each month how much capital you'll need beforehand ?
{mircea_popescu} you don't do it beforehand. you do it after the month close.
{brendio_} So how will that work if investors are investing month by month? or send mid month?
{mircea_popescu} i am the creditor of last resort, so i always cover anything that's needed, and you can only finance full months, no matter when you send you start financing the next month. when you want out you get your money at months end.
{brendio_} And if you get more supply than demand, the too-high bidders get nix? Does it automatically reinvest?
{mircea_popescu} yes. on both scores.
{brendio_} if someone invests on march 15, does that count for march, or only start in april?
{mircea_popescu} starts in april, technically march 31st cause april starts on march 31st due to the last-friday-ends-month rule.
{brendio_} and interest would be paid/credited when? end of april approx.?
{mircea_popescu} between last tick of last friday of a month and monday next. usually within a few hours of close.
{brendio_} and if I bid 1.99% for april, and you can fill the demand at 1.5%, I get no interest for the month, even though you've held my coins?
{mircea_popescu} yes. price formation goes both ways, you want to bid as little as worth it and as much as sensible.
{brendio_} hmmm. Okay. My understanding was correct. It is a very odd structure. Hard to price!
{mircea_popescu} i agree it's odd. let me just say that i didn't do it like this for the sake of making it odd tho. one thing going in your favour is that the exchange uses exactly one bitcoin address, and all transactions are coded so you can look at the money flowing in or out, and decide. stock buys end in 999 bonds in 888 etc. so you at least get a feel for the overall volume if nothing else.
{brendio_} You structures it that way it to control your risk?
{mircea_popescu} to control everyone's risk pretty much. basically even if the statements made are convoluted at least they are absolute.
{brendio_} I hadn't realised that. I thought only you would know by the emails
{mircea_popescu} no, you can look at 1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR everything is in there. buys/sells/exercises of options too, for auditing purposes.
{brendio_} saves you needing to predetermine how much capital to hold
{mircea_popescu} for one, yes.
{brendio_} So, no stock holders yet ...
{mircea_popescu} there's like 4-5 buyers so far yes. between you and me i think the current offering is a little oversubscribed maybe.
{brendio_} whoops, got stocks and bonds mixed. no bonds yet.
{mircea_popescu} no bonds yet no. but makes little sense to send bonds so early in the month. besides i think most of the ppl with capital are trying to figure out how to price me. only been out a few days yet.
{brendio_} is there a time limit for the stocks?
{mircea_popescu} nope. or what do you mean by time limit ?
{brendio_} To buy stocks
{mircea_popescu} there's no time limit in the sense that stocks claim to dividend is perpetual, they do not expire. however, subscriptions do expire, the current one on the 1st of march
{brendio_} just reread - Friday, the 1st of March 2012, 23:59:59 GMT,
{mircea_popescu} i intend to offer a block for 1 week each beggining of a month. so prolly will be another offer starting 31st of march till 7th april. all this will be announced with the regular (monthly) results, which also come out after close of month.
{brendio_} okay good to know. Will there be any public record of prices for which stocks are transferred, or is it all otc?
{mircea_popescu} I will do a closing of the public subscription listing the total ammt received total ammt per share and share blocks allocated.
{brendio_} I mean for secondary transfers, like stock market prices, as opposed to an ipo price.
{mircea_popescu} there's no way for me to ascertain price. maybe people give it away, or trade them for blowjobs. i don't know.
{brendio_} yeah, that's what i thought. I might look out for any trading here :)
{mircea_popescu} some people were talking about taking it to glbse or other such places, in which case... im pretty sure in the end there will be price formation somehow.
{brendio_} Okay, cool, I think you've answered most of my questions. I think about it some more, but might stick to pirate's program and glbse for now ...
{mircea_popescu} one important point : if you bid 1.99% and i fill at 1.5% you get no interest, BUT if the mpoe goes badly you get no loss attributed either.
{brendio_} yeah, I figured that.
{mircea_popescu} and also, do you mind if i publish this on the blog so other people can benefit by the discussion ?
{brendio_} Yeah okay. I can put it on bitcoin talk too.
{mircea_popescu} cool.
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Note : Since the first bond was actually 50 BTC I've lowered the minimum to 50 (previously stated as 100). I do not intend to lower it further.
Friday, 18 January 2013
Te pricepi la bitcoin?
Friday, 18 January 2013
Pai da.
Monday, 28 July 2014
I just leveled up with this article.
Thursday, 1 October 2015
Were there changes made to the bond system since then? February 2014 was the last month detailing operational results for MPOE. Also, the respective address isn't showing signs of activity anymore.
Thursday, 1 October 2015
If you look on the "Recent Articles" tab on this very page, the last item is "MPEx (S.MPOE) August 2015 Statement", suggesting that perhaps the last time detailing operational results for MPOE were published was you know, last month. And if you waited a few days, as the new reporting period rolls over, the corresponding item would have even been first on that list.
Or, for that matter, if you check the dedicated category you can bask in the wonder of a full and uninterrupted set of them, a performance not yet matched by any of the self-proclaimed "companies" in this space. Or whatever, you could also check the monthly archives for the same result.
How did you end up on this article in particular, as it appears to be written in a different language than you use, and is rather old, when there are much more recent articles on the same topic that apparently interests you readily available ?
Thursday, 1 October 2015
Indeed, my statement was ambiguous, sorry about that. What i had in mind were the details regarding the overall trade revenue and expenditure, as well as the final MPBOR. However, there is plenty of data readily available. In your own words, I "must lurk moar". Will do!