Wikileaks - MCCCXLII

205993 5/7/2009 15:51 09USUNNEWYORK470 USUN New York CONFIDENTIAL VZCZCXYZ0027 RR RUEHWEB DE RUCNDT #0470/01 1271551 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 071551Z MAY 09 FM USMISSION USUN NEW YORK TO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/DOD WASHDC RHEBAAA/DOE WASHDC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5/UNMA// RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6486 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC INFO RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS 1858 RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1619 RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS 0001 RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK 0629 RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1194 RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1053 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 1101 RUEHSL/AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA 0412 RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 2025 RUEHBM/AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST 0459 RUEHUP/AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 0384 RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 0629 RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 1042 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2292 RUEHDL/AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 0447 RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE 0156 RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2288 RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 2107 RUEHKL/AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR 0707 RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0595 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1381 RUEHLE/AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG 0468 RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 6369 RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 0763 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 1315 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2594 RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 0892 RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 1156 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1284 RUEHPG/AMEMBASSY PRAGUE 0419 RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 0871 RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 1082 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1082 RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 1990 RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 0572 RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 2122 RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 9110 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 8707 RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 0547 RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3250 RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 2888 RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3681 RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 0768 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1820 C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000470

SIPDIS

GENEVA FOR CD DEL, UNVIE FOR IAEA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2019 TAGS: KNNP, PARM, NPT SUBJECT: SUBJECT: A/S GOTTEMOELLER,S 5 MAY BILATERAL MEETINGS ON THE MARGINS OF THE NPT PREPARATORY COMMITTEE

Classified By: ISN/MNSA - M. RAGSDALE

1. (SBU) Summary: Assistant Secretary of State for Verification, Compliance and Implementation, Rose Gottemoeller, held several bilateral meetings May 5 on the margins of the NPT Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) in New York. This cable reports on her meetings with: South Africa,s Ambassador Abdul Minty, the Chairman of the NPT Preparatory Committee, Zimbabwe,s Ambassador Boniface Chidyausiku, Germany,s Ambassador Peter Gottwald, and UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, Sergio Duarte.

(SBU) Meeting with South Africa,s Ambassador Abdul Minty 2. (C) Minty began the meeting by saying President Obama,s Prague speech had been very well received. He said South Africa would take a moderate tone at the PrepCom and had encouraged members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) to take similarly moderate approaches to the meeting, noting states could not expect immediate delivery on US initiatives described in the Prague speech. However, he said more engagement with the US would be needed before the 2010 NPT Review Conference (RevCon) when the US is ready to discuss in more detail its goals for the RevCon; Minty did not say when this should happen, but he ruled-out the convocation of a fourth PrepCom. Minty said that South Africa and the NAM generally would try to "keep the temperature down," at this year,s PrepCom, but said Iran could be a problem and Egypt was always difficult. He said Egypt would feel a need to posture on the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East, but its particular approach was unpredictable. Finally, he said it was unclear what the future of the New Agenda Coalition would be. 3. (C) Ambassador Minty spoke generally about the future of the NAM and how it makes policy. He said the next NAM troika

would be composed of Cuba as the outgoing chair, Egypt as the incoming chair, and Iran as the future chair. He worried openly about the potential for this troika to advocate particularly hardline policies. At NAM policy meetings sometimes only a dozen countries bother to attend, and the rest of the group then adopts the decisions made by the few attendees. There are no rules about minimum participation at policy planning meetings. He said that India has been helpful in tempering hardline NAM policies in Vienna, but it is not party to the NPT so it does not engage as vigorously on NPT issues. He also made particular note of the inactivity of Latin American countries in nuclear-related NAM policy planning, saying that such countries, while more moderate as a whole, because of their inactivity were not well able to influence NAM policy on such issues. Assistant Secretary Gottemoeller said that a US strategic goal of this year,s PrepCom and next year,s RevCon was to develop better working relationships with the NAM. She said the US opening statement at the PrepCom should be a good start to this end and she expressed pleasure that Minty thought the President,s Prague speech had created positive energy, and said the United States also wants to make clear that it is operating in good faith. She said those US senators that previously had voted against ratification of the CTBT may be convinced that ratification of the Treaty at this time was in the interest of the United States. 4. (C) Ambassador Minty then addressed diplomatic efforts related to the Iranian nuclear program. He indicated the Iranian Foreign Ministry has almost no control over the issue, and that the only way to shift the Iranian Government, in particular on the issue of suspension, was to frame it in a different light. He said the substance of overtures to Iran on suspension would not have to be different, but it must be presented directly to the Supreme Leader and framed

in a way that presented Tehran with specific offers in return for suspension. He said the group surrounding the Supreme Leader contains a former Foreign Minister who is reasonable, but who is constrained by the mullahs, and that the people now working the nuclear issue in Tehran generally don,t understand the freeze-for-freeze proposal. Minty thought vague offers of improved relations or technical cooperation would not work; specific action for action or item for item was required. He also suggested framing suspension as a humanitarian or safety concern, suggesting that Iran might be able to save face by claiming that suspension was not the result of nonproliferation concerns, but of concern about the safety of facility operators and nearby populations. Minty said getting Iran to agree to the Additional Protocol would take a lot of work, but in the meantime Tehran could be encouraged to act as though it were subject to such provisions. He thought it essential that the IAEA be allowed to conduct inquiries into weaponization work, noting that the Agency carried-out such work in South Africa. Iran had nearly succeeded in convincing the broader NAM membership that the Agency should not have the authority to conduct weaponization investigations, but according to Minty, South Africa prevented the adoption of such a policy by the group. In Vienna, he said South Africa has been trying to establish an informal group of moderate NAM members, including the Philippines, to oppose the hardline policies of Iran, and the potentially hardline policies resulting from the new NAM troika; however, South Africa was having some trouble constructing such a group. He said there was not much anyone could do about the new NAM troika, but suggested working with individual countries to counter hardline NAM policies. 5. (C) Ambassador Minty briefly discussed his candidacy for the position of Director General of the IAEA. He said he originally was encouraged to run for the position by a few

countries outside of Africa, because those countries view South Africa as able to bridge gaps between the many divisive issues that arise in the IAEA. He said the Board of Governors were sharply polarized during the first vote, with the West voting for Ambassador Amano from Japan and the rest voting for himself. Minty was disappointed by this polarization, because he views himself as someone who repeatedly has broken rigid, regional policy positions for the sake of global progress. He thinks the media,s characterization of him as the &developing world,s candidate8 is unfair. He reported that Slovenia,s candidate for the position may not proceed, and offered to travel to Washington for consultations if the United States happened to re-evaluate its position on the Director General race. A/S Gottemoeller did not respond substantively. 6. (C) Finally, Ambassador Minty noted that the United States and South Africa used to hold annual meetings to discuss nonproliferation and other nuclear-related issues, and suggested the resumption of such meetings. A/S Gottemoeller said it sounded like a good idea and would report the proposal back to Washington. Minty addressed the great importance South Africa places on thwarting illicit nuclear networks and the A.Q. Khan network in particular. He said since 9/11 many norms and national laws have changed related to terrorism and urged a similar emphasis be placed on controlling WMD, noting that Security Council Resolution 1540 did not do enough to address illicit networks. He recommended giving the IAEA some kind of authority to vouch for the intended end use of particular equipment or technology during prosecutions related to nuclear-related smuggling and networks. Such authority would prevent the disclosure of proliferation-sensitive information during the course of prosecutions. (SBU) Meeting with the Chairman of the NPT Preparatory

Committee, Zimbabwe,s Ambassador Boniface Chidyausiku 7. (SBU) Assistant Secretary Gottemoeller held a very brief meeting with PrepCom Chairman Chidyausiku. On the issue of potential French objections to the agenda for the 2010 RevCon, the Chairman said the French delegation was contacting Paris, and Chidyausiku believed France would be able to agree to his proposed agenda. He said the United Kingdom also thought France eventually would agree to the agenda. Russia reportedly believed France was jealous of the US-Russian relationship and was just looking for attention. Chidyausiku said he would circulate elements of recommendations for the 2010 RevCon on Thursday (05/07) for delegations to consider over the weekend. (SBU) Meeting with Germany,s Ambassador Peter Gottwald 8. (C) A/S Gottemoeller reassured Gottwald that the French delegation would shortly be instructed to join consensus on the RevCon agenda. Gottwald described a forthcoming EU paper supporting the FMCT, noting he still has to work out a few issues with the French. France supports the Algerian proposed program of work for the CD, and hoped the US also would. He is very enthusiastic about the Pakistani support for the proposal, emphasizing what an opportunity this is. He is meeting with his Israeli counterpart soon, and will ask their views on the Algerian mandate and moving forward. He also probed whether the US would reject any linkage to negotiations on PAROS, noting the Chinese are hoping for some US movement on this. Gottwald is also interested in a broader fissile material initiative (FMCI) but noted the French and Brits are not enthusiastic. Gottwald also pressed A/S Gottemoeller on CFE, and she demurred noting her incoming counterpart at State/EUR would have a significant role in this issue. Gottwald said he would like to have German-US meetings in Berlin on the margins of an upcoming High Level Task Force CFE meeting.

(SBU) Meeting with Sergio Duarte, UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs 9. (SBU) A/S Gottemoeller expressed interest in his views on atmosphere and progress in the NPT and also on prospects for the CD. Duarte thinks the NPT atmosphere is much improved, due in large part to statements from USG officials. He thinks the &all parties have rights and responsibilities8 theme resonates. He also believes parties are positive on the FMCT and would support the Algerian proposed program of work. UN SYG Ban ki-Moon plans to attend the opening of the next CD session in May to support the recent momentum toward consensus. He also noted US statements on CTBT as contributing to improved international progress on these issues. He mentioned meeting Gary Samore in Washington and thinks the Administration is correct to be &realistically optimistic8 on CTBT ratification. He urged the US to do something on the Middle East Resolution to bring the Egyptians along. A/S Gottemoeller agreed to keep in touch with him as the Review Cycle progresses. 10. (U) A/S Gottemoeller has cleared this cable. Rice