Wikileaks - DCXXXI

96877 2/15/2007 15:22 07PRETORIA568 Embassy Pretoria CONFIDENTIAL 07STATE12882 VZCZCXYZ0001 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHSA #0568 0461522 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 151522Z FEB 07 FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8224 INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 0157 RUEHBM/AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST 0062 RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 0320 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0491 RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI 0096 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0429 RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 0181 RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0432 RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 0252 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0471 RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0074 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000568

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR ISN/WMDT T. LOWE AND B. LEWIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2017 TAGS: PREL, PARM, PTER, KTIA, SF SUBJECT: WMD FOREIGN CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT MOU

REF: STATE 12882

Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reason 1.4(d).

1. (C) Despite South Africa's deep commitment to nonproliferation, we anticipate that the proposed bilateral MOU will be met with "principled" skepticism from the SAG. Pretoria has a strong preference for multilateral structures and instruments, especially in the area of proliferation. Long before our SAG interlocutors will be prepared to discuss the specifics of the draft text, we expect them to raise the following basic questions about the initiative:

-- Why is this initiative necessary? Aren,t these concerns already addressed through existing treaties/regimes?

-- If there are gaps in existing arrangements, shouldn,t these be handled through a new multilateral agreement?

-- Which countries have you approached? Why those select countries? Isn't this discriminating against other countries in the South (the NAM, the G-77) by creating this hierarchy of capabilities?

2. (C) If we can provide good answers to these initial, ideological questions regarding the overall approach, we may be successful in drawing the SAG into an examination of the text. BOST