Wikileaks - CMLXXXI

144044 3/3/2008 22:54 08OTTAWA325 Embassy Ottawa CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN 08OTTAWA303 VZCZCXYZ4449 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHOTA #0325 0632254 ZNY CCCCC ZZH ZUI RUEWMCE0375 0632251 O 032254Z MAR 08 FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC0000 INFO AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE ZEN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE NATO EU COLLECTIVE RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000325

SIPDIS

NOFORN SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2018 TAGS: PREL, MOPS, NATO, AF, CA SUBJECT: CANADA: SUCCESS AT BUCHAREST CRITICAL FOR NATO, ISAF

REF: A. OTTAWA 303

B. OTTAWA 107

CLASSIFIED BY: POLMINCOUNS SCOTT BELLARD, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

1. (C) SUMMARY: CANADA WILL DEFINE SUCCESS AT THE NATO SUMMIT IN BUCHAREST AS (1) AGREEMENT TO A STRONG POLITICAL MILITARY PLAN REAFFIRMING THE ISAF MISSION AS THE ALLIANCE'S TOP OPERATIONAL PRIORITY, AND (2) THE PROVISION BY AN ISAF PARTNER OF A BATTLE GROUP TO PARTNER WITH THE CANADIANS IN KANDAHAR. A COMMITMENT TO A ROUGHLY 1,000 MAN BATTLE GROUP IS REQUIRED FOR THE MINORITY CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT TO GARNER THE OPPOSITION SUPPORT REQUIRED TO EXTEND CANADA'S ISAF COMBAT PRESENCE IN KANDAHAR THROUGH 2011. THE CANADIANS ARE BETTING THAT U.S. FORCES WILL FILL THE VOID IF NO EUROPEAN PARTNER STEPS UP. WHILE CANADA SHARES CONCERNS OF NATO PARTNERS ON OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES AT THE SUMMIT, NOTABLY EXPANSION OF MEMBERSHIP (AND WILL LIKELY GO ALONG WITH WHATEVER CONSENSUS EMERGES), PM HARPER'S TOP AND SOLE PRIORITY WILL BE TO SEEK THE SUPPORT IN KANDAHAR HE NEEDS FOR DOMESTIC POLITICAL COVERAGE. END SUMMARY.

2. (C) THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT HAS BEGUN ITS FINAL PUSH TO ENSURE SUCCESS AT THE APRIL 2-4 NATO SUMMIT IN BUCHAREST. THE EFFORT INCLUDES DIRECT OUTREACH BY THE PRIME MINISTER AND HIS DEFENSE AND FOREIGN MINISTERS TO KEY COUNTERPARTS IN ORDER TO GARNER MORE SUPPORT FOR THE NATO-ISAF MISSION IN AFGHANISTAN. ON FEBRUARY 28, DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE (DFAIT) DEPUTY DIRECTOR FOR DEFENSE AND SECURITY RELATIONS ANNE BURGESS AND SENIOR ADVISOR FOR NATO OPERATIONS DAVID HUTCHISON TOLD POL/MILOFF THAT CANADA'S FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND DEFENSE AGENCIES HAD BEEN INSTRUCTED TO SEEK TO PERSUADE PARTNERS TO ACCOMPLISH TWO CRITICAL TASKS AT BUCHAREST.

REAFFIRM AFGHANISTAN TOP PRIORITY
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3. (C) FIRST, THEY SAID, THE NATO LEADERS SHOULD REAFFIRM THAT THE ISAF MISSION IN AFGHANISTAN IS NATO'S TOP OPERATIONAL PRIORITY. NATO LEADERS NEED TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON THE COMMITMENTS THAT THEIR DEFENSE MINISTERS HAD AGREED TO UNDERTAKE AT NOORDWIJK, HUTCHISON SAID, WITH A STRONG POLITICAL-MILITARY PLAN AND A PERSUASIVE PUBLIC DECLARATION. OUR PUBLICS, THE AFGHANS, AND THE WORLD MUST UNDERSTAND WHY WE ARE IN AFGHANISTAN AND WHERE WE ARE GOING AS AN ALLIANCE, HE COMMENTED. WHILE CANADA AGREES THAT KOSOVO IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO NATO MEMBERS, BURGESS ADDED, CANADA ALSO WANTS TO ENSURE THAT ATTENTION TO KOSOVO DOES NOT DISTRACT ALLIANCE MEMBERS FROM GETTING THE JOB DONE IN AFGHANISTAN. WITH ONLY A MONTH TO GO BEFORE THE SUMMIT, CANADA IS GROWING MORE AND MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WORK THAT STILL NEEDS TO BE DONE ON THE POLITICAL-MILITARY PLAN AND THE DECLARATION, HUTCHISON NOTED.

TROOPS, HELICOPTERS, UAVS
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4. (C) SECOND, AND FLOWING FROM THE MANLEY PANEL RECOMMENDATIONS (REF B), HUTCHISON SAID, CANADA WAS KEEN TO HAVE A CAPABLE ISAF PARTNER DEPLOY ABOUT 1,000 TROOPS -- A REINFORCED BATTLE GROUP -- TO PARTNER WITH IT IN KANDAHAR PROVINCE BY FEBRUARY 2009. IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT PRIME MINISTER HARPER WILL ARRIVE AT BUCHAREST JUST DAYS AFTER HAVING WON CONDITIONAL PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL FOR AN EXTENSION OF CANADAS MILITARY MISSION IN KANDAHAR, HE SAID. QEXTENSION OF CANADA'S MILITARY MISSION IN KANDAHAR, HE SAID. BUT THE GOVERNMENT'S MOTION ON THE FUTURE OF THE CANADIAN FORCES' MISSION IN KANDAHAR IS EXPLICITLY CONTINGENT NOT ONLY ON THE DEPLOYMENT OF ANOTHER REINFORCED BATTLE GROUP BY A COMBAT-CAPABLE ISAF PARTNER BUT ALSO ON THE SECURING OF MEDIUM-TO-HEAVY-LIFT HELICOPTERS AND UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES (UAVS) TO KANDAHAR -- ALL BY FEBRUARY 2009 (REF A). (COMMENT: THE GOVERNMENT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO SECURE AND DEPLOY THE HELICOPTERS AND UAVS, BUT HAS NOT YET GARNERED A PARTNER WILLING TO DEPLOY THE TROOPS. END COMMENT.)

MANLEY: NATO'S DEFININQMOMENT
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5. (C) DURING A DINNER ON FEBRUARY 28 HOSTED BY AMBASSADOR WILKINS, PANEL CHAIR AND FORMER LIBERAL FOREIGN MINISTER JOHN MANLEY TOLD DATT THAT THE BUCHAREST SUMMIT WOULD BE "THE

DEFINING MOMENT FOR NATO" WHERE ITS MEMBERS WOULD DECIDE WHETHER THE ALLIANCE COULD FACE THE DEFENSE AND SECURITY CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY. MANLEY TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HIS CALL FOR 1,000 ADDITIONAL TROOPS WAS BASED ON ESTIMATES THE CF HAD SHARED WITH THE PANEL, AND NOT A "MAGIC NUMBER." THE CF HAD CONVINCED HIM THAT CANADA NEEDED A PARTNER -- PREFERABLY A EUROPEAN -- TO PROVIDE A REINFORCED BATTLE GROUP OF ROUGHLY 700 FIGHTING TROOPS AND A FEW HUNDRED SUPPORT PERSONNEL. MANLEY NOTED THAT THE BATTLE GROUP WAS A "POLITICAL LINE IN THE SAND" FOR CANADA AND THAT HE WOULD TESTIFY ABOUT ITS IMPORTANCE AS A SIGN OF NATO'S COMMITMENT AT A PARLIAMENTARY HEARING ON MARCH 11.

6. (C/NF) AT A FEBRUARY 29 MEETING, DFAIT AFGHANISTAN TASK FORCE SECURITY POLICY ADVISER CORY ANDERSON ACKNOWLEDGED PRIVATELY THAT ONLY THE U.S., THE UK, AND FRANCE ARE TRULY CAPABLE OF DEPLOYING THE CAPABILITY CANADA NEEDS ALONGSIDE IT IN KANDAHAR. HE SAID THAT CANADIAN OFFICIALS WOULD BE PARTICULARLY KEEN TO KNOW WHETHER AN EXPECTED CALL FROM PRESIDENT BUSH'S TO PRESIDENT SARKOZY SUCCEEDS IN PERSUADING THE FRENCH LEADER TO PARTNER WITH CANADA IN KANDAHAR. WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF A POLISH CONTRIBUTION TO KANDAHAR, ANDERSON ASSERTED THAT, WHILE THE POLES WERE ENTHUSIASTIC FIGHTERS, THEY HAD HAD A DIFFICULT TIME ADJUSTING TO COUNTERINSURGENCY. HE OPINED THAT THE POLES AND OTHER NEW NATO MEMBERS TEND TO CONSUME A GREAT DEAL OF THEIR MORE CAPABLE PARTNERS MANPOWER AND ENABLERS THAN DO MORE CAPABLE WESTERN EUROPEAN FORCES.

COMMENT
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7. (C) THE MINORITY CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT REMAINS CONFIDENT THAT ITS CONDITIONAL MOTION TO EXTEND THE MISSION IN AFGHANISTAN WILL PASS LATER THIS MONTH IN PARLIAMENT. IT IS MAKING A ROBUST EFFORT TO FIND A PARTNER AND IN PARTICULAR IS ENCOURAGING FRANCE TO DEPLOY A BATTLE GROUP TO KANDAHAR. SHOULD THAT EFFORT FAIL, HOWEVER, THE CANADIANS APPEAR TO BE BETTING THAT THE U.S. WILL FILL THE VOID IN ORDER TO ENSURE CANADA'S CONTRIBUTION TO ISAF STAYS IN PLACE. WHILE CANADA SHARES CONCERNS OF NATO PARTNERS ON OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES AT THE SUMMIT, NOTABLY EXPANSION OF MEMBERSHIP (AND WILL LIKELY GO ALONG WITH WHATEVER CONSENSUS EMERGES), PM HARPERS TOP AND SOLE PRIORITY WILL BE TO SEEK THE SUPPORT IN KANDAHAR HE NEEDS FOR DOMESTIC POLITICAL COVERAGE.

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