Wikileaks - CCCLXXIX

70967 7/11/2006 15:48 06BUCHAREST1115 Embassy Bucharest UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY VZCZCXRO5553 PP RUEHAST DE RUEHBM #1115/01 1921548 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 111548Z JUL 06 FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4797 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001115

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, SOCI, RO SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT BASESCU, AT PM TARICEANU'S EXPENSE

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1. Summary: (SBU) A July opinion poll carried out by The National Institute for Polling and Marketing Studies (INSOMAR) revealed continued high public support for President Traian Basescu and relatively low support for Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu, despite the latter's recent attempt to increase his standing by announcing support for withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq. Basescu's Democratic Party (PD) also remained far ahead of Tariceanu's National Liberal Party (PNL). About 54% of the respondents said they did not support maintaining Romanian troops in foreign conflict zones. Respondents expressed much confidence in the institutions of the church and army, but very little in political parties, parliament, and the government. The poll also indicated rising popularity of extreme nationalist politician and soccer team owner Gigi Becali. End Summary.

2. (U) The poll was conducted between July 1 and July 5 among 1134 respondents over the age of 18, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent. On many issues, results are compared to responses to the same question asked in a similar May INSOMAR poll. Results were published in the Social Democratic Party (PSD) leaning daily "Adeverul" and nationalist daily "Ziua." INSOMAR has been associated with the PSD in the past.

3. (U) Relevant poll results are presented below:

- How satisfied are you with the performance of Traian Basescu as president of Romania? May July Change Total Satisfied (%) 63 57 -6

- How satisfied are you with the performance of the government led by Calin Popescu Tariceanu? May July Change Total Satisfied (%) 28 26 -1

- How satisfied are you with the performance of Calin Popescu Tariceanu as Prime Minister? May July Change Total Satisfied (%) 27 26 -1

- "Recently, PM Calin Popescu Tariceanu and President Traian Basescu have expressed completely different positions on problems of national interest. Which one is more right?" President Basescu 47 percent Prime Minister Tariceanu 10 Neither 43

- If elections would be held next Sunday the preferences would be: DA Alliance (PD & PNL) 48 percent Social Democratic Party (PSD) 20 Greater Romania Party (PRM) 15 New Generation Party (PNG) 7 Hungarian Democratic Union (UDMR) 5 National Initiative (PIN) 2 Conservative Party (PC) 1.4

- Electoral options if parties would compete individually: Democratic Party (PD) 36 percent Social Democratic Party (PSD) 20 Greater Romania Party (PRM) 15 National Liberal Party (PNL) 13 New Generation Party (PNG) 7 Hungarian Democratic Union (UDMR) 5 National Initiative (PIN) 2 Consrvative Party (PC) 1.4

- Public confidence in political personalities: May July Change Traian Basescu 56 53 -3 (President)

Mona Musca 39 44 +5 (Formr PNL Culture Minister)

Theodor Stolojan 38 39 +1 (Presidential Advisor)

Gigi Becali 29 33 +4 (PNG leader/Pro soccer team owner)

Mircea Geoana 28 21 -7 (PSD leader/Senator)

Emil Boc 22 26 +4 (Cluj Mayor/PD president)

Vadim Tudor 22 24 +2 (PRM leader)

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Calin P. Tariceanu 21 20 -1 (Prime Minister)

Dan Voiculescu 12 11 -1 (PC Leader/Businessman)

Marko Bela 11 11 = (UDMR leader/Vice Premier)

Adriean Videanu 13 13 = (Bucharest Mayor/PD Vice President)

Ion Iliescu 19 19 = (Former President/PSD member)

Adrian Nastase 12 12 = (Former PM/PSD member)

Petre Roman 13 12 -1 (Former PM/Independent politican)

Cosmin Gusa 10 11 +1 (PIN leader/Deputy)

- Confidence in government ministers: Interior Minister Vasile Blaga 34 Percent Foreign Minister Mihai Razvan Ungureanu 32 Justice Minister Monica Macovei 29 Defense Minister Teodor Atanasiu 23 Integration Minister Anca Boagiu 23 Agricultural Minister Gheorghe Flutur 20 Transportation Minister Radu Berceanu 20 Environmental Minister Sulfina Barbu 20 Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu 17

- Levels of support for maintaining Romanian troops in foreign conflict zones: Totally agree 11 Percent Generally agree 35 Not really agree 29 Definitely disagree 25

- "In what measure do you believe there is a risk for any future terrorist attacks in Romania?" Very high 11 Percent Fairly high 36 Not so high 37 Very low 16

- Public confidence in institutions: Church 87 Percent Army 77 Media 65 Gendarmes 60 President 55 Romanian Intelligence Service 47 Politicians 38 Justice 35 Unions 25 Government 20 Parliament 17 Political Parties 16

4. (SBU) Comment. Prime Minister Tariceanu's recent public call for a withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq does not appear to have boosted his polling figures. Basescu has seen a modest decline in support in recent months, but nonetheless remains the most popular politician in the country. PSD President Mircea Geoana's popularity, on the other hand, seems to be falling markedly. Also of note is the rising popularity of extreme nationalist New Generation Party (PNG) leader and Bucharest soccer team owner Gigi Becali, who is the fourth most popular political figure according to this survey. A controversial figure who has overtly spoken out against minority groups and has drawn from fascist images, Becali has increasingly come to compete with Vadim Tudor for supporters at the far right of the political spectrum. Post will report further on this development septel. End comment.

5. (U) AmEmbassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest.

Taubman