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	<title>Comments on: So you're a rational fellow, right ?</title>
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	<link>http://trilema.com/2016/so-youre-a-rational-fellow-right/</link>
	<description>Moving targets for a fast crowd.</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 15:52:56 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Mircea Popescu</title>
		<link>http://trilema.com/2016/so-youre-a-rational-fellow-right/#comment-116661</link>
		<dc:creator>Mircea Popescu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Feb 2016 04:30:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://trilema.com/?p=65178#comment-116661</guid>
		<description>As they say, in theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice - there is. Quite so here : once I started actually clicking I discovered I craft Bouquinism at output quality 130, not 145. Therefore the math changes, specifically : 

&lt;blockquote&gt;
- Pay Foxy 903k on the q 195 BNG, and then craft a run of 11`395 * 1.95 + 23 * 152 * 1.41 + 2`515 + 339xv = 30`003 ECu in with 14`587 * 1.3 = 18`963 ECu out for an overcraft of 11`039 each click for 26 clicks

- Or else not pay Foxy the 903k, and instead do a craft run of 11`395 * 1.5 + 23 * 152 * 1.41 + 2`515 + 339 = 24`875 ECu in with the same 14`587 * 1.3 = 18`963 ECu out for an overcraft of 5`912 ECu for however many clicks it takes to deliver the same results as above ?
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This in turn changes the later figures, 

&lt;blockquote&gt;If we believe that overcraft is fungible, to wit that 26 * 11`039 = 287`014 ECu worth of overcraft made through the first option is the same as 48.5 * 5`912 = 286`732 ECu worth of overcraft made through the second option, it then comes to compare the cost of paying Foxy 903k as well as to pay for 23 * 26 = 598 bits of Worthless Putrid Leather with the cost of buying 48.5 bottles of BNG as well as 23 * 48.5 = 1`115.5 WPL, (ie an extra 517.5), plus the decay of tool and workbench involved in doing an extra (48.5 - 26) = 22.5 clicks. As it happens the leather goes at 130%, has a base value of 152 and a quality of 141, so we can readily know that the extra leather costs us 144`183 ECu. The tool and bench are a little iffier, but going by a rough 200% approximation we'd be spending a further (2515 + 339) * (48.5 - 26) * 2 = 128`430 ECu there. The question then becomes : is saving on 48.5 BNG worth an expenditure of 903`000 - 144`183 - 128`430 = 630`387 ECu, or 12`997 per bottle ? As it happens that BNG bottles have a base value of 11`395 and considering the quality they'd be required at and what prices look like of late, it'd be a wonder if we could make them for less than 25k each.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

As you can see the numbers look a little better for 2nd option, but still not really good enough.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As they say, in theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice - there is. Quite so here : once I started actually clicking I discovered I craft Bouquinism at output quality 130, not 145. Therefore the math changes, specifically : </p>
<blockquote><p>
- Pay Foxy 903k on the q 195 BNG, and then craft a run of 11`395 * 1.95 + 23 * 152 * 1.41 + 2`515 + 339xv = 30`003 ECu in with 14`587 * 1.3 = 18`963 ECu out for an overcraft of 11`039 each click for 26 clicks</p>
<p>- Or else not pay Foxy the 903k, and instead do a craft run of 11`395 * 1.5 + 23 * 152 * 1.41 + 2`515 + 339 = 24`875 ECu in with the same 14`587 * 1.3 = 18`963 ECu out for an overcraft of 5`912 ECu for however many clicks it takes to deliver the same results as above ?
</p></blockquote>
<p>This in turn changes the later figures, </p>
<blockquote><p>If we believe that overcraft is fungible, to wit that 26 * 11`039 = 287`014 ECu worth of overcraft made through the first option is the same as 48.5 * 5`912 = 286`732 ECu worth of overcraft made through the second option, it then comes to compare the cost of paying Foxy 903k as well as to pay for 23 * 26 = 598 bits of Worthless Putrid Leather with the cost of buying 48.5 bottles of BNG as well as 23 * 48.5 = 1`115.5 WPL, (ie an extra 517.5), plus the decay of tool and workbench involved in doing an extra (48.5 - 26) = 22.5 clicks. As it happens the leather goes at 130%, has a base value of 152 and a quality of 141, so we can readily know that the extra leather costs us 144`183 ECu. The tool and bench are a little iffier, but going by a rough 200% approximation we'd be spending a further (2515 + 339) * (48.5 - 26) * 2 = 128`430 ECu there. The question then becomes : is saving on 48.5 BNG worth an expenditure of 903`000 - 144`183 - 128`430 = 630`387 ECu, or 12`997 per bottle ? As it happens that BNG bottles have a base value of 11`395 and considering the quality they'd be required at and what prices look like of late, it'd be a wonder if we could make them for less than 25k each.</p></blockquote>
<p>As you can see the numbers look a little better for 2nd option, but still not really good enough.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Mircea Popescu</title>
		<link>http://trilema.com/2016/so-youre-a-rational-fellow-right/#comment-116659</link>
		<dc:creator>Mircea Popescu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Feb 2016 00:36:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://trilema.com/?p=65178#comment-116659</guid>
		<description>Quite.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quite.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: BingoBoingo</title>
		<link>http://trilema.com/2016/so-youre-a-rational-fellow-right/#comment-116658</link>
		<dc:creator>BingoBoingo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2016 22:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://trilema.com/?p=65178#comment-116658</guid>
		<description>So space ships and chair stacks to reach the heavens are still a long ways off?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So space ships and chair stacks to reach the heavens are still a long ways off?</p>
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